Pressing Questions Heading Into Tomorrow

These are some questions that usually go through my head as a winter storm is headed this way:

1) What is the track of the storm?
This has the greatest impact on snow potential. Tomorrow's storm is moving in from the south, which historically is where our biggest snow storms have developed. The question that still remains is whether it will continue on its current track, or will it shift east/west? I will be watching the data later this evening and have another update.

2) How strong is the storm?
This storm is small, but packs a pretty good punch - it dumped around 2 to 5" in parts of the Midwest earlier today.

3) How much moisture is involved?
There is plenty of moisture available for this storm as evidenced by today's rainfall.

4) How fast is the storm moving?
This will be a limiting factor for snow accumulations with this storm. It will be accelerating as it passes our area.

5) How much of the precip will fall as sleet (ice pellets), or wet snow?
This will also be a limiting factor. I usually call sleet and wet snow "accumulation eaters". If too much of the precip falls as sleet or wet snow, then the accumulations will dramatically drop.

Taking all this into account, I still think that metro Richmond and areas to the north and west will pick up 2 to 4" of snow. 1 to 2" will be possible in other areas to the east and southeast.

A lot can still change in the next 24 hours, so you will want to keep a close eye to the forecast. Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm!

Winter Storm Watch Now Includes Metro Richmond

Quick Update

Rain showers are now developing near the North Carolina state line. These showers will overspread the area later this afternoon and evening.

The track of the next phase of this storm still looks favorable for some snow across the Mid-Atlantic.



A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for communities to the west and north in anticipation of wintry weather.



I wouldn't be surprised if that watch is extended into parts of central Virginia later today. We'll keep you posted!

1-2 Punch Over Next 3 Days

Low pressure across the Southeast tonight will move through the Carolinas and just off the Virginia coast Saturday. Rain will increase in coverage and intensity during the day Saturday, with much of central Virginia getting a good soaking of much needed rainfall. A second more potent upper-level low will move from the Central Plains tonight through the Southeast Saturday, and then up the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday. There is the potential for accumulating snowfall in central Virginia Sunday night into early Monday with this second storm system. The latest data continues to suggest that the heaviest snow will fall along and southeast of a line from Kilmarnock to New Kent to Emporia. Any shift of the storm’s track, which this far out is more than likely to occur, will take the heaviest snow either more inland or more offshore. Stay With CBS 6, We'll Keep You Ahead of the Storm.

Colder Temperatures To Return

A combination of two storm systems will bring some much-needed rainfall to the Commonwealth this weekend, starting with scattered showers Friday afternoon and evening. A second, stronger storm system will move through the Deep South this weekend and to the coast, and is expected to bring more widespread rainfall to Central Virginia Saturday and Sunday.

Colder air will also be moving into place on the North and West side of this low, which will allow some of the rain to become a winter mix and snow in parts of the Southeast. There is a chance eastern and southeastern parts of Virginia could receive snowfall at the beginning of next week as well from this system, but we will be watching its development and progress closely this weekend.

I mentioned that colder air—there is a 20+ degree drop behind that cold front as it is moving through the mid-section of the country Friday morning. For example, in St. Louis, MO, the front passed overnight, dropping about 20 degrees in six hours, from a temperature of 60 degrees at 9 p.m. Thursday to 39 degrees by 3 a.m. Friday. I do not expect as drastic a temperature drop in Central Virginia from this front. Temperatures will fall gradually from the upper 40’s early Saturday morning to the low 40’s by Saturday afternoon.

Colder-than-average temperatures will stay with us into the middle of next week.

--Carrie--

Complex Weather Pattern this Weekend

Our weather in central Virginia will take a 180-degree turn this weekend, with several factors at work across the Mid-Atlantic. An area of high pressure over eastern Canada and New England will funnel cold air down the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains and into central Virginia, ending our short-lived bout of early Spring temperatures. At the same time, a strong upper-level disturbance will develop across the Southeast U.S. and will become cut off from the main flow. The cut-off nature of this system will make it difficult to nail down the exact timing and track this far ahead, but it appears parts of the Southeast could see the first snow so far this season. The associated surface low will track just offshore up the Eastern Seaboard, and could spread snow into far eastern Virginia on Tuesday.

A Pair of Mild Days, then More Winter

Thursday and Friday will be a couple of mild days in central Virginia, with highs reaching the low to mid 60s. A storm system will spread much needed rain into the area late Friday, and the rain should continue into the weekend. Colder air will move into the state over the weekend, and there is some potential for snow in parts of the area. I'll have another update Thursday afternoon. For now, enjoy the early Spring weather!

New Sunspot in Cycle 24

A new sunspot has developed on the face of the Sun, which you can see as a “tiny” black speck (mind you, most sunspots are larger than Earth) in this SOHO image. There had not been a sunspot since Jan 9, 2009.

This is another spot in the new Solar Cycle 24, which further indicates a gradual increase in solar sunspot activity as the Sun transitions from the old solar cycle into the new one. A solar cycle typically lasts about eleven to twelve years, where there is a gradual increase in the flux of solar particles from the Sun to the Earth (sunspots are usually indicators of a release of magnetic energy) that reaches a peak when there is a greater chance for magnetic “superstorms” on Earth. When this happens, communications can experience interference or loss for GPS, power grids, satellites, etc. Aurora events can also become more frequent and intense at the poles. After reaching a peak, the sun’s magnetic flux toward Earth gradually weakens, and the Sun can go many weeks without a single sunspot occurring.

The last solar maximum occurred in 2000, with the minimum recently in 2008 when sunspots were few and far between.

You can view a plot of solar activity here, and another plot of the solar cycles from 1900 to the present here.

Here is a pretty useful site dedicated to monitoring the new Solar Cycle 24:

And, in case you’re wondering where the best Aurora viewing is right now (which rarely occurs in Virginia!), you can view the map here.

--Carrie

Spring Tease Before Another Chill

Colder than average temperatures settled into the Commonwealth Monday and Tuesday after a strong Winter Storm moved through the Northeast. Parts of Central Virginia received the snow showers from this system on Sunday, falling heavily enough at times to cause drivers to need to slow down because of reduced visibilities. However, the snow did not stick around in Virginia for long, but it sure did to our Northeast! Check out some of these snow totals (in inches):

...MAINE...
FARMINGTON 26.2
BRIDGTON 25.0
WELLINGTON 23.0
HARTFORD 21.0
BANGOR 12.0

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
LOST RIVER 21.0
SUNAPEE 15.5
CLAREMONT 10.0

...VERMONT...
SUTTON 20.6
NEWARK 18.8
WARREN 18.0
LYNDONVILLE 16.0
NORTH MONTPELIER 12.0

...NEW YORK...
WILMINGTON 12.0

...MASSACHUSETTS...
CLARKSBURG 8.0
SAVOY 7.5
(DATA FROM THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER)

We will get a break from the cold blast through the rest of this workweek, as high temperatures climb back into the 60’s Thursday and Friday. However, another storm system will move through Friday and Saturday, sweeping a cold front through Friday night and ushering in a return to colder temperatures to start the first two days of March. Temperatures are expected to be well below average again from the Mid-Atlantic through the Northeast March 1-2.

Comet Lulin Visible Tonight

If you don't mind getting out in the cold late tonight, Comet Lulin will be visible to the unaided eye. The best time for viewing will be around 1 AM, and sky conditions in central Virginia will be ideal. Look toward the southern sky and find the brightest object in the sky, which will be the planet Saturn. If you look just a little southeast of Saturn, you'll find Comet Lulin, appearing as a faint greenish-blue smudge. Below is a sky map for additional guidance. Binoculars or a telescope will reveal a much better image of this fast-moving comet. Bundle up if you head out, as temperatures in central Virginia at 1 AM will be in the range of 22 to 25 degrees.

Blustery Monday With Fire Risk

Wind gusts at Noon are currently 25-30 mph in much of Central Virginia from the Northwest. This will keep fire danger elevated through the afternoon, as relative humidity values remain below 35% in much of the region. Wind gusts will weaken below 20 mph after sunset.

--Carrie

Pictures Of Snow

Here are a couple photos of some snow from earlier today. These were sent in by Tommy and Abby Manley of Montpelier.





Here is another picture from Route 1 just south of Ashland taken from someone's cell phone.



If you have pictures of the snow from today, send them to weather@wtvr.com

Brief Bout With Some Snow

Around two o'clock I witnessed a nice batch of rain mixed with wet snow flakes moving through downtown Richmond. It stopped, then a quick burst of some snow flurries followed. A few stray flurries will still be possible through 5 PM, then skies will become mostly clear after sunset.

Isolated Showers Continue

A few light rain showers are still hanging around the area. There have been reports of some mixed precipitation near Langley Air Force Base, and some light snow near DC, but the majority of precip has fallen as rain. We still could see isolated pockets of flurries for the next couple hours, then skies will begin to quickly clear out.

Light Rain In Richmond

Some light rain is now falling across Central Virginia and will be possible on-and-off through the morning. As colder air moves into the upper atmosphere, we could see a brief change to some wet snow by midday. Later this afternoon the chances for precip will quickly diminish. In fact, skies will be mostly clear by this evening.

Remember to send any photos of snow to weather@wtvr.com

Flakes Still Possible Today

Doppler Max 6 is picking up on some moisture in the area this morning, but most of it is evaporating before it hits the ground. I'm watching farther to the west, where a few snow showers are moving past Lexington, KY and Cincinnati, OH. This is associated with a wave of energy that will pass our area in the next few hours.

I'm expecting hit-and-miss rain/snow showers to occur between 10 AM and 4 PM today. Any flakes that fall will quickly melt on impact - temperatures will stay well above freezing all day.

If you see any snow today, snap a picture and send it to weather@wtvr.com - I will share your photos for the 6:30 and 11 PM newscasts tonight.

Nice Sunset

If you didn't get to see it for the 6 PM newscast, our Skytracker camera in Richmond captured a beautiful sunset....here it is!

Dry As A Desert

Earlier today dew points were in the single digits - that's bone dry! To put things in perspective, on a typical summer day, dew points will hover in the 60s.

This is important to the forecast. It will take awhile for the air to saturate tomorrow as the next storm approaches. This process will cool the atmosphere and give us a chance for some wet snowflakes in the middle of the day.

I will give a timeline for tomorrow's storm during the 6 PM newscast, then I will have another update here later this evening.

Cold This Morning

Temperatures have dropped into the teens this morning. It has been two weeks since we have seen a morning this cold! Luckily temps will quickly rebound to near 50 by the afternoon.

Update on Winter Weather Chances

A strong upper-level disturbance located over eastern South Dakota tonight will continue to move southeastward over the next 36 hours. The position of the upper wave when it moves through the Mid-Atlantic region is favorable for strong lift across central Virginia. The fast movement of the storm system and limited moisture will yield only snow showers and flurries for our area. Surface temperatures will be two to three degrees above freezing, so no travel issues are expected with this system.

A Few Flurries Possible Sunday AM

A quick-moving storm system will dive southeastward out of the Dakotas Friday night, arriving in the Mid-Atlantic Sunday morning. Marginal temperature and moisture profiles will result in only scattered snow flurries across central Virginia, mixing with light rain across southeast Virginia. I'll have another update on this system later tonight.

Weekend Forecast

A very blustery Friday won't be the best start to the upcoming weekend, at least for you warm-weather lovers, but Saturday should bring more comfortable conditions to central Virginia. We should have plenty of sunshine, lighter winds, and highs in the low 50s on Saturday. It won't be a warm day by any stretch, but it definitely looks to be the better of the two weekend days for outdoor activities. Clouds will increase late Saturday ahead of a storm system that will bring a chance of flurries or light snow to the area Sunday morning. A cold front will move in early, keeping highs in the low to mid 40s on Sunday.

Gusty Winds Thursday

Strong, gusty winds from the West and Northwest are sweeping through Central Virginia today behind a cold front, as the associated strong low pressure system tracks through the Northeast. At 11 a.m., winds are gusting up to 35 mph in the area, and will continue to remain strong through the afternoon. Temperatures are also expected to begin dropping through the afternoon back into the 40's as the cooler air comes with the Northwest winds. Skies will remain mostly sunny, with just a few clouds this afternoon before becoming clear tonight.
--Carrie

Patchy light fog Thursday morning

After a wet Wednesday, plenty of moisture is in place to produce a little fog Thursday morning, as winds remain fairly light and skies are becoming mostly clear. Visibilities at 5 a.m. are doing fine (better than 4.0 miles) at all reporting stations, but a few spots in Central Virginia may have patchy light fog through sunrise.
--Carrie

A Few Showers Possible Until Midnight

Widely scattered showers are expected to move through central Virginia this evening as a strong storm system moves off the east coast. An additional .05 to .10 of rain will be possible if a shower passes over your hometown. The chance of rain will diminish after midnight, with cloud cover sticking around through the first part of Thursday.

Cold Rain In Virginia Tapering Off Through Afternoon

The cold rain that replaced the winter mix from this morning in Virginia will gradually end from West to East through the afternoon, exiting into the Atlantic by early evening. Scattered rain showers will continue, though, off-and-on this afternoon in the Commonwealth.

Winds will also become gusty this afternoon and evening, turning to the Southwest and West overnight. Thursday, winds will turn to the Northwest with gusts in the 20-30 mph range.

--Carrie

Winter Mix Changing To Rain

The winter mix of precipitation that has affected much of Central Virginia is ending. The atmosphere above ground is gradually warming above freezing as warmer air is advected from the South. Rainfall will continue through the afternoon in Central Virginia, before tapering off from West to East early this evening. Rain totals through 11 a.m. have averaged about a quarter of an inch in Virginia.

Temperatures stayed safely above freezing at the surface through the morning, preventing the snowfall from sticking for long on the ground, and also keeping roads from becoming icy.

--Carrie

Winter Mix Continues in Central and Northern Virginia

A winter mix of precipitation continues at 10 a.m. Wednesday morning in Central and Northern Virginia, and out West near I-81 as well. Snow, rain, and sleet are still occurring in much of the Richmond Metro area and elsewhere in Central Virginia. As the snow comes down heavily at times, it can briefly accumulate on cars and grass. However, temperatures continue to remain above freezing in most places, which means the snow is melting shortly after falling. Also, roads are remaining ice-free, except for some isolated slick spots on bridges/overpasses.

The winter mix and rain will continue into lunchtime, before becoming all rain from South to North this afternoon.

You can email your snow pictures (before the snow melts!) to crose@wtvr.com.

--Carrie

Wet Snowfall Continues Wednesday Morning

Wet snowfall continues this morning in the Richmond Metro area and northward into North-central Virginia. This snow is not sticking on the roads because temperatures are still above freezing at this time. However, the snow will briefly accumulate on grassy surfaces and on cars, before melting through the morning. Temperatures will continue to rise this morning as warmer air is advected from the South, which will turn the snow to rain by mid-day.
--Carrie

Winter Mix Wednesday Morning

Widespread precipitation continues to move into Central Virginia Wednesday morning. A winter mix of sleet, snow, and rain is falling along and North of a line from Farmville, to the Richmond Metro area, to the Northern Neck. South of this line, precipitation is falling as just rain. Surface temperatures are remaining above freezing in most places, however, so I do not expect accumulation or icing on roads. However, elevated and exposed surfaces like bridges/overpasses may briefly develop a few icy spots this morning. The light snow that is falling in the Richmond Metro area is melting as soon as it hits the ground, but is briefly accumulating on elevated exposed surfaces like cars.

I expect most of the mix to end by 10 a.m. in Central Virginia, transitioning over to all rain. The rain will continue to fall through the afternoon, before ending from West to East early this evening.

--Carrie

Winter Mix in Richmond

As of 7:49 a.m., precipitation is falling as a winter mix in Richmond, with snow, sleet, and rain. Temperatures are above freezing, so this is not creating icy roads. I expect the winter mix to transition over to all rain through the morning in Richmond, as Southerly winds advect warmer air into Central Virginia.

Light snow continues to fall in North-central Virginia, and also along and West of I-81 to the Roanoke area.
--Carrie

Flurries in Richmond Metro

Flurries are moving into the Richmond Metro as of 6:50 a.m. In and North of Richmond will continue to see the winter mix (primarily light snow) for a couple more hours this morning, before turning over to all rain by mid-day. Temperatures are still above freezing in most of Central Virginia, so I do not expect the light snow to stick around or create slick spots on the roads.

The temperature has dropped to 31 degrees in Charlottesville, so some of the light snow could briefly settle on the ground before melting later this morning as temperatures quickly rise back above freezing. The Winter Weather Advisory is still in effect for that part of the state.
--Carrie

Flurries in Charlottesville

As of 6 a.m., flurries are being reported in Charlottesville, where a wintry mix has been moving through West-central and Northwest Virginia this morning. Staunton is reporting light snow, as well. Temperatures, though, have been staying just above freezing in that part of the state, which is preventing widespread icing on the roads. However, temperatures are still falling in that part of the state, and a thin glaze of ice may form on some surfaces briefly this morning. Temperatures have remained far enough above freezing along I-95 so that I do not anticipate significant icing.

East of I-81 and drawing a line from Richmond West to Lynchburg, along and North of that line will see a wintry mix this morning, with light rain South of that line. The precipitation will transition over to all rain by mid-day in the state.
--Carrie

Wednesday Morning Update

Early Wednesday morning, rain showers are moving into the Western third of the state, with a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow in the higher elevations out West. Temperatures are currently above freezing in Central Virginia, but I expect some cooling through sunrise, where temperatures may dip to and below freezing in spots. Locations West and Northwest of Richmond are most likely to see a brief period of freezing rain this morning. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 1PM for Northwest Virginia, including Charlottesville, for a wintry mix of precipitation this morning.

Winter Weather Advisory for Parts of the Area

A winter weather advisory has been issued for northwest Virginia from 6 Am through 1 PM Wednesday. Precipitation should begin as light snow, with a transition to freezing rain and eventually all rain. Meteorologist Carrie Rose will have the latest on current temperatures and radar trends starting at 5 AM Wednesday on CBS 6.

A Few Slick Spots Early Wednesday

Temperatures will quickly fall to freezing or just below freezing before midnight tonight. Skies across the area will become mostly cloudy, causing temperatures to remain steady or even slowly rise in some areas. At the same time, a broad area of precipitation will be developing and moving into the area from the west. There will be a brief window early Wednesday morning in central Virginia, where sub-freezing surface temperatures could coincide with the arrival of the precipitation. A few slick spots, mainly on bridges and overpasses, will be possible until about 10 AM Wednesday. Temperatures will rise into the mid and upper 40s by Wednesday afternoon.

It's All Relative...

Seasonable temperatures this week can feel so much colder after flirting with Spring-like weather last week. One of our CBS 6 camera operators asked me this morning if we have had “long winters” like this one the past several years. But I say, it’s all relative!

In fact, last February was quite similar to this month so far, with Spring-like swings up into the 60’s and 70’s and dives back down into the 30’s with winter precipitation. So the past two Februaries have teased us with Spring before slapping us back to “reality” with seasonable Winter temperatures. That makes the seasonably cold temperatures feel relatively much colder after a warm spell.

Snowfall has not been that impressive this Winter so far, with only a few events bringing several inches of snow to parts of the state. Richmond has only received 0.3" of snow this Winter (all of it falling this month), compared to a cold-months average by this time of year of 9.2" of snowfall. And this Winter has not been "unusually long" either. Richmond’s average high does not get back up to 60 degrees until March 20 anyway, which coincidentally is also the First Day of Spring (the Vernal Equinox) this year. So maybe Punxsutawney Phil was right after all, that we did still have six more weeks of Winter in store!

Perhaps many of us simply remember Winter 2001-02, which was the 7th warmest December to February on record for Richmond with an average temperature of 43.6 degrees.

Recent Februaries where some highs reached 70+ degrees:
2006
2005
2004
2002 (high 78 degrees on Feb 1st, high 41 degrees on Feb 28th...talk about a flip-flop!)

Recent Februaries where highs never hit 70+ degrees:
2007
2003
2001
2000

The last time Richmond had a Top 10 Coldest Winter was in the 1970’s, with #7 in 1977-78 (34.4 degrees average temperature) and #5 in 1976-77 (34.1 degrees average temperature). So it has been a while since temperatures consistently remained much colder than average through the Winter months. Still, feeling cold is all relative, right? I'd say that temperatures falling into the low 20's Tuesday morning is cold enough for me...just one more month until Spring officially begins!

--Carrie--

1 Hour, 21 Minutes

Have you noticed that days are getting longer? The shortest day of winter was December 21 (Winter Solstice), where the sunrise was 7:21 AM and the sunset was 4:55 PM. Tomorrow sunrise will occur at 6:56 AM and sunset is scheduled for 5:51 PM.

So what is the total amount of daylight that we have gained since December 21? You guessed it - 1 hour and 21 minutes!

Pockets Of Flurries Moving Across The Area

There have been reports of isolated flurries this afternoon, especially in the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula. These flurries will quickly dissipate quickly after sunset and the rest of tonight will be clear.

Few Flurries Possible Monday Afternoon

Light snow showers and flurries continue to try to reach the ground Monday mid-day in much of Central Virginia. However, the precipitation is often evaporating before it can reach the ground, thanks to the dry air near the surface. Still, some flakes will make it all the way to the ground, but will not accumulate with temperatures well above freezing.

Winds are also a bit gusty Monday afternoon up to around 25 mph from the North. This is keeping wind chills about five to ten degrees below the actual air temperatures.

After looking at the latest data, it still appears likely that much of the Commonwealth will receive rain showers Wednesday. Best-case scenario for rain totals will run a quarter to near a half inch of rainfall, but will likely be less than that for most locations.

--Carrie--

Abnormally Dry With Fire Danger

A month and a half into 2009 and Virginia is running far enough behind on precipitation for the year to warrant “Abnormally Dry” conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor in nearly the entire state. You can check the latest official Drought Monitor map here.

On average, Richmond has more than 5” of liquid precipitation by February 15. However 2009’s year to date total is only 1.59”.

Much of Virginia has a chance for rain coming up on Wednesday, but I do not expect totals to be particularly high. However, every little bit will help us chisel into the rainfall deficit right now. Remember with Abnormally Dry conditions, that fire danger will continue to be a problem. The Burn Ban went into effect Sunday, February 15, so be sure to check with your local government for burning regulations at this time. Fire season lasts through April 30 in Central Virginia.

--Carrie--

Monday Morning Quick Update

As Aaron mentioned Sunday evening in his blog posts, the air near the surface is quite dry. Even though we have had precipitation falling from this storm system, not much of it has made it to the ground overnight. As of 4 a.m., only the Virginia Beach area was reporting light snow and flurries. There are other scattered pockets of flurries making it to the ground in Central Virginia, but this is very light and melting shortly after falling because temperatures remain above freezing in most places.
--Carrie--

A Few Flurries Still Possible

The air remains bone dry this evening, so it will be tough for this weak storm system to squeeze out any precipitation tonight. A few flurries will still be possible between midnight and 5 AM, then skies will slowly clear through the day on Monday.

Any flakes that fall will quickly melt once they hit the ground, so I'm not anticipating any troubles on the roads tomorrow. The best chances for some bona fide snow will be in the southwest corner of the state, out of our area.

Quick Update

Temperatures are hovering in the mid and upper 30s across the region. In addition, the air still remains VERY dry. A few sprinkles have tried to develop, but have quickly evaporated. A few flakes could still fall tonight, but the chances are looking pretty slim.

I am looking at some new data coming into the weather center and will update this blog in the next hour. In addition, you can catch me on the 11 PM news...my producer Chris Neelley has put me at the top of the newscast!

Few Flakes Possible Tonight

A weak storm system will pass the area tonight and give us a quick chance for some wet snow. The best chances for flakes will be south of I-64 and will occur between 1 AM and 7 AM. Temperatures will be above the freezing mark, so most of this will melt on impact, but here is what I'm expecting by tomorrow morning:



Although I'm not expecting major problems on the roads tomorrow, there could be a couple isolated slick spots on bridges and overpasses towards the North Carolina state line. I will continue to monitor the situation and have another update around 11 PM.

Sunrise/Sunset Times Explained

I received an email earlier this week from Christy about sunrise/sunset times:

In class, we discussed how, due to the refraction of light, the sun is seen for approximately two minutes prior to actual sunrise, and about two minutes after sunset. This then led to the debate. They then wanted to know, if on the news, the weather said sunrise at 6:42 am, was that the actual "rising" time, or was that when it would be predicted to be visible (and actually rising at 6:44 am). Some think, as scientist, you announce the actual rise time, taking into account the the minutes. Others think that the aforementioned students are "splitting hairs," and since no one will really care about the difference, the time announced is about when the sunrise will be seen.

Here is my response:

I actually remember calculating sunrise/sunset times in school, so this is taking me back :)

Sunrise and sunset calculations DO take into account refraction. However, this isn't a perfect science. Different kinds of conditions (warm versus cold, different kinds of clouds) will create more or less refraction. So you have to take the average refraction of the sun under a "normal" atmosphere.

I hope that makes sense. Basically both groups of kids could be right...we take refraction into account, but it's not precise to the second.

Here is a website that further explains the topic:

http://aa.usno.navy.mil/faq/docs/RST_defs.php#top

Aaron

Cold Start Today

With clear skies and calm winds last night, temperatures quickly dropped into the upper 20s earlier this morning. Doppler Max 6 is detecting isolated showers across the state, but more than likely most rain drops are evaporating before they hit the ground. However, a small batch of rain between Petersburg and Emporia looks like the real deal - here you can expect sprinkles for the next 10 or 15 minutes.

Although we will see clouds on-and-off through the day, the majority of Valentines Day will be dry...have a good one!

Weekend Forecast Takes an About-Face

The weather pattern affecting the Mid-Atlantic will change only slightly heading into the weekend. What initially looked like a cold weekend, is now looking much better. Clouds will increase overnight, so Saturday won't be the prettiest looking day, but temperatures should still reach the 50s, and winds will be light. Sunday will showcase a little more sunshine, but seasonally cool temperatures. Presidents Day continues to look cold, but the prospects for seeing any snow look very slim. The upper storm system that we would need to create lift in central Virginia should move well south of the area. Have a great weekend!

Nice Day to Finish the Work Week

Friday will be mostly sunny and relatively mild, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.  Colder temperatures and a chance of rain can be expected this weekend.

Strong Winds Continue

Strong west-northwest winds continue across central Virginia, with the 3 PM observation at RIC reporting a sustained wind speed of 25 mph, gusting to 37 mph. We continue to receive widespread damage reports, with the highest concentration across western Virginia. Here are a few of the measured wind speeds since midnight:

Sherando (Augusta County): 65 mph
Staunton (Augusta County): 53 mph
Bridgewater (Rockingham County): 51 mph

RIC reported a wind gust of 51 mph shortly after midnight

I expect wind speeds to decrease this evening. Here's a quick forecast for sustained winds:

3 P.M.-5 P.M. 20-30 mph
5 P.M.-7 P.M. 10-20 mph
7 P.M.-9 P.M. 10-15 mph
9 P.M.-11 P.M. 8-13 mph

Power Outage Map

I want to also post a map which displays power outages across the area (provided by Dominion).

Strong Winds Continue

Winds continue to howl from the west - the highest gust in the last hour was 41 mph reported in Hanover. Winds will hit their peak strength of 25 to 35 mph (50 mph gusts) between 1 and 4 PM and then gradually subside to 15 to 25 mph between 5 and 11 PM. Winds will then drop to 5 to 15 mph later tonight.

Red Flag Warning still remains in effect until 9 PM because of the high fire danger created by the winds.

Red Flag Warning Today

Strong winds and very dry conditions equate to a high fire danger across the area today - a Red Flag Warning is in effect until 9 PM this evening. If a brush fire develops, it could quickly spread and become very dangerous. It's a situation we will be watching very closely through the day and will have updates later.

Severe Weather Threat has Ended in Central Virginia

The line of strong to severe thunderstorms weakened very rapidly just after 10 PM tonight, and redevelopment of storms is unlikely. Breezy and relatively mild conditions will continue for the remainder of the night. Strong winds are still expected area wide on Thursday.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Extended into Central VA

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 1 AM for parts of central and northern Virginia. The watch area is roughly along and north of a line from Buckingham, to Powhatan, to Richmond, to West Point. Wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will be possible as a broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms continues to move rapidly eastward.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect Until 10 PM

A broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms continues to rapidly move through southwest Virginia. Gradual weakening of the line is expected this evening, but wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will still be possible as the line moves through western Virginia. Greene, Albemarle, Nelson, and Amherst counties are included in the severe thunderstorm watch that expires at 10 PM.

Wind Advisory/Fire Weather Watch in Effect Thursday

A strong pressure gradient across central Virginia will result in even stronger winds Thursday than what we have seen today. Sustained west winds in the range of 30-40 mph, with gusts to 50 mph, will be likely in central Virginia on Thursday. The strongest winds should occur between 11 AM and 4 PM. The combination of strong winds, low relative humidity values, and dry ground will result in high fire danger in central Virginia. A fire weather watch has been issued for much of the area for Thursday.

Very Windy Through Thursday

A very strong, early-season severe weather system has been moving through the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley region Tuesday and Wednesday. Tornadoes, large hail, and strong, damaging winds have occurred from this system, and the risk for severe weather will continue Wednesday through the South and Ohio Valley region. This same system will reach Western Virginia Wednesday evening, with the risk for strong, damaging winds around 60 mph.

You can track the most recent storm reports associated with this system as documented by the Storm Prediction Center .

By the time this line reaches Central Virginia late Wednesday evening, I expect the severe threat to have diminished, with rain and thunderstorms moving through. However, strong winds will accompany this system today. In Western Virginia, gusts up to 60 mph are possible, while winds are expected to gust to around 45 mph in Central Virginia. Winds will remain strong overnight and all day Thursday as the tightly wound system exits to the North. Anchor outdoor patio furniture and bring in trash cans.

Chief Meteorologist Zach Daniel will be monitoring the system as it moves in from Western Virginia this evening and keep you ahead of the storm.
--CARRIE--

Big Changes Coming

Wednesday will be another warm and breezy day across central Virginia ahead of a strong storm system that produced widespread severe weather, including tornadoes, in the central U.S. The change in temperatures across central Virginia won't be sudden, but will take place gradually through the weekend. It looks very likely that we will go from highs in the mid 70s on Wednesday, to highs in the mid 40s over the weekend. There is a slight indication from some of the evening data, that parts of the area could see a few snowflakes on Sunday. I'll have another update on this Wednesday afternoon.

Enjoy the Warmth While it Lasts

The weather this past weekend was nothing short of amazing for early February. We didn't set any records in Richmond, but missed by only one degree on Saturday and just three on Sunday. Both days were in the 70s, with light winds and a ton of sunshine. We have another mild duo of days ahead of us this week on Tuesday and Wednesday, but there's a little bit of a catch. Cloud cover will be much more prevalent than over the weekend, and it looks to be quite a bit breezier as well. The changing conditions will be in response to a strong storm system that will move through the area Wednesday night. We'll have a chance for showers and even a thunderstorm, but most of the severe weather with this system should be to our north and west. We'll still have a slight chance of seeing a few strong storms, so we'll monitor it closely. Cooler weather will move in behind the storm system by the end of the week, and it should stay cool over the weekend. There is some indication that even colder air will move back into the area late next week. Get out and enjoy the warmth while it lasts!

Mild Monday, Warmer Through Wednesday, With Storm Chances This Week

A cold front moved through the state Sunday evening, bringing a brief stall to our weekend warm-up. However, Monday afternoon will still be mild with temperatures reaching the upper 50's and 60's in much of the Commonwealth. High clouds continue to overspread the state from the West, as a large low pressure system moves through the Plains and allows moisture to surge ahead of it into the Eastern U.S. High pressure at the surface will remain in place over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through mid-week, and winds will remain Southerly across Virginia Monday through Wednesday aiding another warm-up back to highs in the 60's and 70's.

The potent storm system Zach mentioned in the previous blog entry still looks on track to impact our weather Wednesday evening, overnight, into early Thursday with rain and thunderstorms possible. That low is currently moving into the Southwest U.S. through California and Nevada, and we will be closely monitoring its development and progress through the Plains and Mississippi Valley region over the next couple of days, where it has the potential for severe weather.

--Carrie

Spring Storms This Week?

A potent storm system will move across the central U.S. this week, approaching the Mid-Atlantic and central Virginia Wednesday evening. The weekend warmth we just experienced will return to the area ahead of this system. Moisture, wind profiles, and lift should be sufficient for a few strong to severe thunderstorms to develop Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially across the western third of Virginia. We'll have updates on the track, timing, and intensity of this storm system over the next couple of days. Stay With CBS 6, We'll Keep You Ahead of the Storm.

Zach

Near-record warmth this weekend

Richmond almost set a new record high Saturday!

Saturday’s high temperature in Richmond was 69 degrees, which was just one degree shy of the record high for February 7. As a matter of fact, we set that record high of 70 degrees just a year ago in 2008.

The record to beat for Sunday is 75 degrees from 1925. I think we will come close again to the record, as we did today.

Southwestern parts of the state, though, did tie or break record highs for February 7:

Danville: 71 (broke 1950 record high of 69)

Lynchburg: 68 (ties 1925 record high)

Roanoke: 68 (ties 1927 record high)

--Carrie

Enjoy This Weekend

Temperatures this weekend will reach the 60s on both days, something we have not seen in Richmond in nearly 3 months. The overall weather pattern will favor occasional cool intrusions through next week, but no real threat of seeing any Arctic air. We are still well over a month away from the official beginning of Spring, so cold weather and even heavy snow are still very possible. Get out this weekend and enjoy it!

So quiet, you could hear the temperature drop…

Okay, sorry that was a poorly placed pun…with far too much alliteration just now. (Clears throat)…Herm, anyway, our weather pattern is fairly quiet through the weekend. Winds have become light and variable overnight, which when combined with clear skies and dew points dropping into the single digits and low teens, makes for a cold morning with lows in the teens in much of Central Virginia Friday. However, sunny skies and a return to Southerly winds today will aid our warm-up into the weekend, which will be one of the nicest all Winter.

With the quiet weather, I’m concerned about a snooze-fest, so let’s have a flashback to liven things up! On February 6, 1980, Southeast Virginia received one of its most significant snowfalls on record. Virginia Beach received 20” of snow, Norfolk packed in a foot, and Williamsburg totaled 6”. Richmond received snowfall as well, which put the snow depth at one inch. This further illustrates Zach’s point in his blog Thursday evening, that February is a mixed bag of weather for Virginia!

On a somber note, this is also a time of year when severe weather begins to rear its head, usually through the South. Today marks the one-year anniversary of the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak that occurred February 5-6, 2008 through Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Indiana. The severe weather (84 confirmed tornadoes) killed 59 people with more than 200 injuries. It is the deadliest tornado outbreak in the United States since May 31, 1985. Many of the tornadoes occurred at night, when spotting them is difficult and most people are asleep. Tornadoes (five of which were rated EF-4 with estimated wind speeds 166-200 mph) were not the only threats from this system, though, as the storms also caused tremendous straight-line wind damage, flooding, and up to softball-sized hail.

The outbreak is dubbed the “Super Tuesday” event because February 5, 2008 was the primary voting day for political parties selecting their presidential candidates for the ballot. For more information on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, click here. For a list of severe weather reports, click here and search for events occurring Feb 5-6, 2008 in "All" states.

--Carrie--

What's the Weather Like in Early February in Richmond?

Good luck answering that question the next time family or friends decide to plan a visit to the Commonwealth a few months in advance. There has probably never been a better example of how different a day can be from one year to the next than what we have seen on February 5th the past two years. The high temperature today in Richmond never got above freezing, only making it to 29 degrees. Last year on this exact date, we set a record high of 76 degrees! So you never quite know what to expect this time of year. Safe to say, a weekend of temperatures in the 60s will be a welcome change.

Cold For National Weather Person's Day

I had completely forgot until I heard it on the CBS Early Show when Harry Smith wished Dave Price happy Weather Person's Day! I have to admit, I wish it wasn't in the winter...it's too cold!

Speaking of cold, most areas started today with temperatures in the teens! It looks like we will have another chilly morning for tomorrow as well. If you don't like the cold weather - like yours truly - then you will like this weekend. Warmer air is headed this way, so be patient!

Lows in the Teens by Morning

North winds will continue to usher cold and dry air into central Virginia overnight. A combination of clearing skies and decreasing wind speeds will allow temperatures to fall into the teens by Thursday morning. High temperatures Thursday afternoon will remain close to freezing in most locations, despite seeing full sunshine.

Advisories Only Remain in Western VA Mountains

All Winter Weather Advisories have now been cancelled in Virginia, save for the Western Virginia mountains west of I-81. Snow flurries continue to move southward from the D.C. area into far North-central Virginia, and may reach parts of the Northern Neck this morning. However, the low pressure system tracking through North Carolina will move out to sea by late-morning, moving the best chances for flurries this afternoon into the Chesapeake Bay.

Temperatures behind this system to our West have fallen into the teens, and I expect that colder air to filter into our state this evening, allowing most places to fall into the teens and low 20's Thursday morning.
--Carrie

Flurries Moving Through Far Southeast Virginia

At 6:10 a.m., flurries are moving Northeast from North Carolina into far Southeast Virginia, just south of Virginia Beach. Regions south of 58 and east of I-95 have the best chance to receive flurries for the next couple of hours this morning. This will not lead to significant accumulations. Scattered flurries are possible elsewhere in the state this morning, but chances are slim.
--Carrie

Advisory Lifted

The Winter Weather Advisory has been lifted for Central Virginia. This storm continues to take a southern track, which means that most of the significant snowfall will stay in North Carolina. Isolated pockets of flurries will be possible for the next few hours, especially near Norfolk and Virginia Beach, then this storm will be gone.

Overnight Update

The threat for accumulating snow Wednesday morning appears less likely than it did earlier today. The evening data reveals a less compact and weaker upper-level disturbance, which should provide less forcing for widespread snow. As of 11:00, the winter weather advisory/winter storm warning remained unchanged. A light dusting of snow will still be possible in the Richmond/Tri-Cities area early Wednesday, with heavier snowfall totals confined to far southern and southeastern Virginia.

Snow Showers Moving Through Richmond

A few light to moderate snow showers will continue in Richmond through the early evening hours. Only a dusting on mainly grassy surfaces is expected as the showers move east at 25 mph. Residents in eastern Henrico, New Kent, and Charles City counties will have the best chance of seeing snow through 9 PM.

Another Round of Snow Coming

A small but potent upper-level disturbance will move along the NC/VA border causing snow to develop overnight across much of central and southern Virginia. A winter weather advisory is in effect from midnight tonight through noon Wednesday for all of southern and parts of central Virginia. 1 to 3 inches of snow will be possible in these areas. A winter storm warning is in effect for Charlotte and Halifax counties where snowfall in excess of 5" will be possible. I'll have another update early this evening.

Another Snow Showing?

Monday night into Tuesday morning snowfall has exited the region, but another strong wave is moving into Indiana and Kentucky, bringing more snowfall to our West. This system will approach Central Virginia Tuesday night into Wednesday, and may bring another round of snow showers to the state. Based on current trends, it looks like Southern Virginia has the best chance of seeing another round of snow. Chief Meteorologist Zach Daniel will have updates this evening on the track and potential impacts of this next wave.
--Carrie

Snow Over in Richmond

The wet snowfall has ended in all of Metro Richmond at this time, and continues to end from West to East in Central Virginia this morning. Temperatures continue to remain above freezing in most spots, so black ice has not been able to develop on the wet roads. However, be careful on the wet roads this morning, as there are many puddles on the secondary streets.

Snow showers continue to move from West Virginia into Southwest Virginia this morning from Roanoke and Southwest. From Charlottesville to Lynchburg and Danville, and to the West, temperatures have fallen below freezing. I do expect icy spots on the road this morning in that part of the state.

--Carrie

Viewer Snow Pictures Tuesday Morning

Ed Jones from Rawlings, VA submitted these photos taken at approximately 6 a.m. Tuesday morning. The snow was still falling at the time, but has since ended. Thanks, Ed, for your contributions!

You can see the snow accumulating on the grass, but not sticking to the road.

Snow Ending From West to East

Snow is ending from West to East this morning, and the back edge of the snowfall runs from the D.C. Metro Area to Fredericksburg to Burkeville to South Hill at 5:40 a.m. New snow showers are moving into Southwest Virginia at this time, and there may be new accumulations from Roanoke to Martinsville and west of an inch or so.

Temperatures are still holding above freezing along and East of I-95 at this time, so black ice has not been able to form in most of this region. However, it is freezing from Emporia west to South Hill, and black ice may form over the next couple of hours on the wet roads in South-central Virginia.

Temperatures are also below freezing in Western Virginia closer to Charlottesville down to Lynchburg and West, so the wet roads will begin freezing this morning with slick spots.

--Carrie

Still Snowing in Richmond

Good early morning from Carrie Rose! As of 3:30 a.m., it is still snowing in Richmond, with snow primarily accumulating on cars and other elevated and exposed surfaces. There is only light accumulation on the ground, with the roads remaining wet at this time. Temperatures in Richmond are still just above freezing, so ice has not been able to develop on the roads. However, I will be watching that potential very closely through the morning, and CBS 6 Beat the Traffic Reporter Amanda Meadows will be in with me shortly to keep an eye on things.

Check back often for updates.
--Carrie

Snow Now In Central VA

Light snow is now falling in Richmond and is accumulating on cars and the grass. The back edge of this batch of snow is just to the west, so it will be ending in the next few hours.

Although a lot of this snow is melting, there could be isolated slick spots on the roads, so be careful! Carrie Rose will be in the weather center here shortly and will have an update later this morning.

Rain In Richmond

We initially had a few flurries in Richmond, but it has now changed to light rain. This will eventually change back to snow once temperatures drop a few degrees.

I'm still expecting Richmond and surrounding areas to get around 1" of very slushy snow. The majority of this will accumulate on anything detached from the ground: grassy surfaces, rooftops, cars or your back deck.

Charlottesville

Here is a photo sent in by Ric Barrick of the snow in Charlottesville. He says that the roads are just now starting to get covered. If you are heading west bound on I-64 this evening, be careful!

Be sure to send all photos of snow to weather@wtvr.com

More Reports

Most people seeing the snow say that the flakes are huge!

Bath County:
1" on the ground

Orange County:
.25" on the ground

Charlottesville:
Around 2" on the ground

Snow Reported West & North

There are reports of light snow in Charlottesville, where temperatures are already 32 degrees. Farther west in Staunton, 1.2" of snow has accumulated. Light snow is also falling up north in Fairfax county, where a light dusting is now covering the ground.

You Can Feel It In The Air

Colder air is now moving into the area - thanks to a strong northeast wind gusting up to 25 mph. Isolated rain showers are also crossing the area, especially to the south of I-64. Hit-and-miss light rain showers will be possible for the rest of this evening.

Chance For Snow Tonight

Ok, here is the very latest on what I'm expecting. I'll address the three keys to the forecast again.

1) Temperatures reached the low 60s again today, to the ground is nice and toasty

2) I'm expecting air temperatures to stay in the mid 30s while the snow passes the area early tomorrow morning

3) The track of the storm hasn't changed much. The brunt of the storm should remain off the coast.

With all that said, some snow can still stick on things detached from the ground...for instance your back deck, grassy surfaces or rooftops. It will be slightly colder to the north and west of the metro, where isolated areas could pick up a quick 2" or less. Again, a lot of this will melt as well.

Snow still expected Monday night into Tuesday

I have reviewed the latest data this morning, and I agree with Aaron’s thoughts Sunday night…the system will be close and colder air will move into place for snow falling...but:

1.) I expect surface temperatures to remain above freezing Tuesday morning.

2.) The track of the low pressure system does look like it will remain well off the coast, keeping the highest precipitation at sea.

3.) I do still expect rain to mix with and change over to snowfall overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, but precipitation will be light and melt at the ground because of the warm soil temperatures. Richmond did not dip below freezing Monday morning, and is expected to be mild in the upper 50’s Monday afternoon. Accumulations should be light from this wet snowfall.

4.) There is a chance for flurries in the Commonwealth Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, but those will be hit or miss light snow showers.

By the way, it's Groundhog Day. Will Phil see his shadow? Tune into CBS 6 this morning to find out!
--Carrie

Update

Ok, I just reviewed the latest data and will address the three pressing questions from the previous blog entry:

1) Temperatures look like they will stay in the mid 30s Monday night

2) Tomorrow will be in the upper 50s, so the ground will heat up even more

3) The storm track looks even farther off the coast

This isn't great news for all you snow lovers out there. We should see a brief wintry mix of rain to wet snow Monday night and into very early Tuesday, then this storm will be gone. Of course, if the track changes even the slightest, we will let you know! Lastly, we should have another quick shot at some snow early Wednesday. Carrie will have another update tomorrow morning.

Monday Night

I'm still expecting a rain-to-snow mix Monday night and into Tuesday morning. Latest data is even suggesting that some of this snow will stick, however, I remain skeptical. Here's why:

1) Temperatures will be *just* above freezing when the snow is falling. This means a lot of the snow will be wet.

2) Today was a warm day and tomorrow will also be mild, so the ground will be relatively warm during this event. That will also affect accumulations.

3) The track of this storm is still uncertain. If it pulls too far off the coast, then our chances for ANY snow will dramatically drop.

Regardless, when a storm takes this kind of track, we have to watch it VERY carefully. I will look at the newest data this evening and have another update around 11:30 PM.