Is The El Nino-Global Warming Link Bogus?

Research conducted by Texas A&M University has found that an El Niño event in 1918 was much stronger than scientists thought before. Plugging in the 1918 event conditions into an advanced computer model produced strong El Niño results (significant warming of the equatorial Pacific waters off the west coast of South America), which was well before the 20th Century’s global warming trend. Therefore, these results call into question previous scientific claims that global warming is making El Niño events stronger.

In 1918, surface data collection in the Pacific was not as widespread as it is today, so scientists were previously working off of scattered ship-based measurements. Those records indicated a weak El Niño in 1918, instead of the quite strong event produced by the Texas A&M computer model run. This discrepancy adds fuel to the scientific community’s debate about how well-founded conclusions on El Niño and global warming are when based on an often spotty surface data record. A&M scientist Ben Giese, who presented these research results at a climate change conference in Perth, Australia Tuesday, asserts that computer models are a good way to investigate pre-1950 El Niño events. Giese stated Tuesday, “It makes it a challenge to talk about El Niño and global warming because we simply don’t have a detailed record.”
(Reuters correspondent David Fogarty conducted the interview with Giese Tuesday in Perth.)
Ben Giese's faculty page at TAMU

For a current ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) Cycle Discussion released March 23, click here.
For the latest Climate Prediction Center diagnostic discussion on ENSO, click here.

It does appear that we will continue to transition from La Nina back to ENSO neutral conditions through the Spring and Summer 2009. What that means for Central Virginia is that we will have “equal chances” of being above or below normal for temperature and precipitation through the rest of Spring. ENSO should have no major impact on our climate pattern for the next few months.

--CARRIE--