August Ends With A Taste Of Fall!

Break out the hot apple cider, pumpkin muffins, and warm vegetable soup! On this last day of August, Fall must be impatient to begin with a strong cold front sweeping much of the country Sunday into today. Early Monday morning, the cold front has already cleared Virginia, and continues to push into the eastern Carolinas. With highs expected today in the low 70's, it seems like Fall is providing a mild preview of the approaching cooler season. Surface high pressure is settling in for the week from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic. This morning, temperatures are falling into the 30's in Wisconsin and Michigan and 40's through much of the Great Lakes states.

Our climatological averages in Richmond for August 31 are a high of 84 and a low of 65, but we will be close to the record cool high temperature today of 70 from 1999. This time of year, we can still have the last gasps of high Summer heat or the early breaths of Fall. The record high for this date is 102 set in 1953, and the record low is 46 from 1934.

This taste of Autumn will not last for too long, though, as temperatures will gradually return to average levels in the mid-80's by the end of this week.

Erika Could Form Soon

We've been watching a strong tropical wave in the Atlantic for the past couple of days. Latest satellite imagery shows some broad circulation. If this continues to strengthen (which most computer forecasts indicate), then this will become Erika. There is another circulation to the northwest of this wave that we will also watch, but conditions don't look as favorable for development. I will have the very latest during the 11 PM newscast tonight...see you there!

Gaston Video

Remembering Gaston

It was five years ago today when Tropical Storm Gaston moved through our area.

This storm dumped as much as 12" of rain in some locations across metro Richmond.

Flash flooding took the lives of eight people - five of which were motorist who tried to drive through flooded roadways. In addition, Gaston spawned twelve F0 tornadoes. The total damage estimate for the whole storm was roughly $30 million. You can find additional information at the following link:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004gaston.shtml

Big Changes Headed This Way

The coolest air mass we have seen since Summer began will be moving into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. The high temperature map from today is posted above, and gives a glimpse of what is to come. Highs across the Great Lakes were in the 50s and 60s today, while the desert southwest had temperatures nearing 120 degrees. This large spread in temperatures is due to a meridional (north-south) upper-level flow, indicated by the top graphic (forecast for Sunday night). Hot tempertures are found under the ridge (SW US) and cool temperatures are found under the trough (Great Lakes). The strong trough will dig into the eastern US, bringing highs in the upper 60s and low to mid 70s to central Virginia on Monday and Tuesday.

Danny Update

The latest update on tropical storm Danny reveals no change in intensity, but more of a northeastward movement and an increase in forward speed. With most of the rain and wind displaced to the east and southeast of the system, the affects on the Outer Banks are expected to be minor and short lived. The weather in central Virginia will be unaffected by Danny, but a few storms will be possible Saturday associated with an upper-level low over the Southeast U.S.

Disorganized Danny

Tropical Storm Danny remains weak Friday morning, barely at tropical storm strength with maximum sustained winds up to 40mph northeast of the center of low pressure. Danny is also still just as disorganized as it has remained all week during its life. (Watch a NASA GOES loop of Danny from Tuesday through Thursday here.) Poor Danny just hasn't been able to overcome some of the interfering upper-level factors preventing a typical cyclone structure from developing. Here's what Danny looks like this morning:

As Zach talked about last night, the center of Danny will pass offshore of the OBX Saturday, bringing high waves and riptides to the coast, with winds up to 30-45 mph for a few hours.

Tropical Storm Danny Update

Danny has weakened further this evening, with maximum sustained winds of only 45 mph. A tropical storm watch was issued this afternoon for much of the OBX from Duck to Cape Lookout. While some strengthening is possible over the next 36 hours, it does not appear very likely for Danny to achieve hurricane strength. I expect the center of Danny to move approximately 75 miles east of Cape Hatteras early Saturday morning. Tropical storm force winds will likely extend outward roughly 100 miles from the center of the storm, resulting in a brief period (3-4 hours) of winds in the range of 30-45 mph on the Outer Banks. I don’t think the storm will be large enough to spread a disruptive measure of wind and/or rain into central Virginia.

Danny Update: Lopsided Storm

Tropical Storm Danny's intensity remains the same mid-day Thursday, with maximum sustained winds at 60 mph. The organization of the convection is slightly better, but there is still no visible eye or symmetry to the storm, as one would expect from a "classic tropical cyclone." In fact, you could maybe tease Danny about being "naked" because the center of rotation at the surface is what we term "exposed." I.E., the convection is all shifted to the right of this surface low pressure center, and there aren't storms rotating around the entire "eye." Check out the visible image:

Weird, isn't it? This might be a result of the upper-level flow keeping some shear in the vicinity of Danny.

Here's the latest computer guidance for the track of Danny. The Tropical Storm is still expected to intensify to a Category One hurricane before transitioning to an extra-tropical cyclone later this weekend. Danny should pass just to the east of the NC and VA coastlines, bringing rough surf and steady winds of 15-30mph Saturday.

Drought Update: Past Week's Rains Help!

Early last week, more than half of the state was in abnormally dry conditions, teetering on the edge of a drought unless a fresh infusion of rain came soon. Sure enough, we had several rounds of heavy rains that moved through much of Central Virginia over the past week, including last Saturday's line of strong thunderstorms (up to 5" in spots!) that stretched clear from D.C. to the North Carolina border, and also late Sunday into early Monday's swath of strong to severe storms that swept through and dumped 1"-3" of much-needed rain. In light of these events, the abnormally dry conditions were lifted from nearly all of the state. Only parts of south-central Virginia along the North Carolina border, which has missed out on the heaviest of the rains, still remains "abnormally dry" in this week's Drought Update.

Tropical Storm Danny: Thursday Morning Update

Tropical Storm Danny has strengthened some overnight, with maximum sustained winds now at 60mph. However, Danny isn't showing a classic tropical cyclone "look." There is still no eye, and the convection is not symmetric around the center of rotation (see enhanced IR satellite image above). The latest track estimates do keep Danny just offshore this weekend, before it accelerates along the New England coastline as a Category One storm and transitions to an extratropical cylone (IE, it loses its tropical characteristics).

Tropical Storm Danny

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter investigation this morning concluded that Tropical Storm Danny has indeed formed after becoming better-organized Wednesday and developing a surface low pressure center around which the tropical convection will be focused. Danny is currently about 445 miles east of Nassau in the Bahamas, and is expected to produce rain totals in the Central and Northwestern Bahamas of two to three inches. Maximum sustained winds are at 45mph, but slow strengthening is possible the next several days, when Danny may reach Category 1 hurricane status late Friday or early Saturday. Movement is to the west-northwest at 18mph, which will take Danny on a course for the Outer Banks by Friday into early Saturday. While it appears that the center of the tropical storm will remain just offshore in the Atlantic, eastern North Carolina and Virgina may receive some of the impacts inland from Danny, including gusty winds, storm squalls, and high surf along the coastlines.

Hurricane Hunters Investigating Storm

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to the tropical convection that has been strengthening and becoming better-organized early Wednesday about 470 miles east of Nassau in the Bahamas. It will determine if a surface low pressure center has developed, around which the convection can organize into either a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Danny.

Track A Little Closer To OBX

The still disorganized area of tropical convection 350 miles north of Hispaniola continues to be monitored for any development and strengthening. As of early Wednesday morning, a surface low pressure center is still not evident. However, as these storms move west-northwest today, they should move into a lower-shear environment that may allow the storm to organize and become our next Tropical Depression or Storm.


This is the latest computer model guidance for possible tracks of the system. Compare it to Zach's post from last night, and you'll notice the trend is to move the tracks farther west toward the Outer Banks.

Update on Potential Tropical Storm

A hurricane reconnaissance aircraft was unable to detect a closed circulation with the tropical disturbance located north of Puerto Rico this afternoon. Conditions appear favorable, however, for the further development of this system into a tropical depression, and perhaps a tropical storm. The posted image shows the very latest plot of computer model guidance tracks of this system.

Next Tropical System Possible

An area of tropical convection 300 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico is becoming better organized Tuesday morning, and has a high probability of strengthening into a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days. Upper-level winds are expected to have minimal shear, allowing the system to develop a surface low and focus for organized convection. Currently movement of the convection is to the west-northwest at 20 mph. Indications are that this system, like last weekend's Hurricane Bill, will pass in between Bermuda and the Outer Banks this weekend.

If this does become a Tropical Storm, it will be named Danny.

Heavy Thunderstorms Overnight

Strong thunderstorms with torrential downpours moved northeast overnight through Central Virginia, with the highest rain amounts stretching from Campbell Co., through the northwest half of the Richmond Metro, and into the northern parts of the Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck. In this swath, rain totals range widespread 1" to 2", but northeast of the Metro into the western Peninsulas, local totals up to around 3" occurred. Alan in Tappahannock reported 3" from the overnight storms, with pea-sized hail. That rain total added onto the 5" of rain received in Tappahannock Saturday! These storms were, for the most part, below severe limits with gusts up to 45mph and frequent lightning. Trees were reported down in Goochland County on Manakin Road, Broad Street, and Three Chopt Road about four miles north-northeast of Sabot. Because of the heavy rain in a short amount of time, widespread ponding on roads occurred, and poorly drained areas experienced minor flooding. The rest of today, there is a slight chance for a few isolated showers and storms.

There were a couple of severe thunderstorms, though, that did occur overnight. One moved through Westmoreland County between 4 and 5 a.m., and produced some wind damage one mile north of Kinsale. Numerous trees were blown down, roof damage occurred, and quarter size hail was reported. Some of the hail was still on the ground four hours later! This severe storm did have weak rotation indicated at times while it was moving through the county, but an official survey from the National Weather Service determined that straight-line winds were likely responsible for the damage. An earlier severe storm in Prince Edward County blew a few trees down on Hwy 460 about three miles east-southeast of Farmville.

Thunderstorms Spreading Across The Area

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible for most of central Virginia over the next few hours. Very heavy rain and frequent lightning will accompany the strongest storms. General movement is NNE at 10 to 20 mph. Activity should diminish near sunrise.

New Activity In The Tropics

A very broad area of circulation in the Atlantic Ocean has caught my eye. Right now it doesn't have any tropical characteristics, but over the next few days it could evolve. It's drifting in our general direction (WNW 20 to 25 mph), so we will be tracking it very carefully through the week. At the very least, it could bring a few showers to the East Coast by the end of the workweek or possibly the upcoming weekend.

Showers Still Possible This Evening

Isolated showers have popped up in western Henrico County. A few more showers will be possible for the entire area through at least sunset.

In addition, I'm keeping a close eye on a batch of heavy rain that has developed in central North Carolina. This is drifting slowly to the north. If these showers maintain their strength, they will cross the state line and into our area. For this reason, I'm keeping rain chances at 30% through early tonight.

Tallying The Totals

We definitely needed the rain today, but some areas received too much. Worst hit was Tappahannock, where roughly 5 to 6" of rain fell this afternoon and evening! Consequently, rivers and streams are running high. I've posted a link on the right side of the blog with a map so you can track rivers in your neighborhood.

Surfers At Virginia Beach

This was sent in by Thomas Messervy - a coworker here at CBS 6. I'm not surprised to see surfers out on the beach today trying to take advantage of the waves created by Hurricane Bill. Hopefully no one was hurt!

Wind Damage In South Hill

This was taken earlier today when straight line winds ripped through a family reunion. Luckily no one was hurt!

Video From Brandermill

This was taken by our photographer Andy Peterson. You can send photos and video to me at ajustus@wtvr.com and I will post them here on the blog.

Photos

This was taken in Tappahannock by Nathan Johnson.

This was taken in Dinwiddie by Wayne Covil.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 7 PM

Wind Damage In Southern VA

Several trees were knocked down in Halifax County as a severe thunderstorm ripped through southern VA. These storms are headed for Central VA and will maintain their strength, so the threat for more wind damage continues.

Isolated Severe Storms Possible Today

A batch of very heavy rain is headed this way. Isolated severe thunderstorms are embedded within these showers. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, so I wouldn't be surprised if a watch is issued within the next hour or two.

Showers & Storms Likely Saturday

The latest data continues to support a good chance of showers and thunderstorms as an upper-level storm system and surface cold front move through the area. A lingering upper-level low will lead to slight rain chances into Monday. Have a great weekend!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 9 PM

The watch inlcudes most of Central Virginia with damaging winds and hail being the primary threats.

Strong to Severe Storms Possible Friday

As a strong trough moves toward the East today, and Southwesterly flow over Virginia continues, we will have the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms in Central Virginia this afternoon and evening. Good lift will be in place across the region today ahead of this trough, and sufficient heating and low-level moisture will also be present. Highs will again be in the low- to mid-90’s in Central Virginia, with humid conditions. Threats from the strongest storms will include damaging winds and large hail, but any of these storms will produce locally heavy downpours.

The surface cool front associated with this upper storm will move into Central Virginia Saturday, with more widespread showers and storms across the area ahead of and along the boundary, which should be in far SE VA by early Sunday morning.

--Carrie

Dangerous Surf This Weekend

As Hurricane Bill passes several hundred miles to our east in the Atlantic, it will generate large swells of 9-10 feet along our coastline, and along much of the Eastern Seaboard. Cape Cod and eastern Maine and Canada will receive the worst of the waves and gusty winds as Bill brushes the region on its turn Northeast into the North Atlantic. Waves just off of Cape Cod will likely be 12-15 feet Saturday and Sunday.

If you have plans to be at our Atlantic beaches anytime from Friday morning through Sunday evening, be aware of the high risk for rip currents and large waves that make swimming dangerous. Rip currents are especially likely around jetties, piers, and sandbars. If you become swept in a rip current, do not fight the flow but try to swim parallel to the shoreline until you are out of the current. Then swim at an angle (not straight to the shore) back to the beach.

Drought Update

Much of Central and Northern Virginia and the Peninsulas are in abnormally dry conditions, as shown in today's Drought Monitor update.

This is a big increase in "abnormally dry" conditions in the state, when compared to last week's report.

Richmond International Airport, which is in the abnormally dry ranking area, is -6.12" from average for year-to-date precipitation.

Scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible in the state once again Thursday afternoon, and into this weekend as well, but the downside to these storms is that they produce only locally heavy rainfall amounts, versus a widespread steady rain event that benefits large areas.

Bill Still A Major Hurricane

After weakening slightly over the last several hours, Hurricane Bill was downgraded early Wednesday to a Category Three storm, but is still a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds at 125mph. Bill is now moving Northwest as opposed to its recent West-Northwest motion, and should turn more northerly this weekend as it passes near Bermuda as a Cat 3 or 4 storm. This weekend anywhere along the East Coast, large swells will be possible as Bill remains offshore. Bill may clip parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland early next week as it weakens and accelerates to the Northeast into the much cooler North Atlantic waters.

Strong Model Agreement on Bill's Track

All models continue in very good agreement with respect to Bill's track over the next several days. A gradual turn to the North and eventually Northeast is expected to keep the major hurricane well east of the Mid-Atlantic coast. High surf can be expected for a few days just about anywhere along the east coast.

Hurricane Bill Update

A NOAA plane investigated Hurricane Bill Wednesday and confirmed Bill's continued Category Four strength, with maximum sustained winds of 135mph. However, the hurricane hunters did measure 152mph winds at flight level during one pass through the storm. Bill will maintain major hurricane strength as it continues to move over very warm ocean waters the rest of this week with low wind shear. By this weekend, though, Bill will pass into cooler Atlantic waters as it turns north and northeast, possibly brushing New England and Nova Scotia, and is accelerated northeast as a large upper-low moves through the Northeast U.S. and Eastern Canada.

Major Hurricane Bill

Hurricane Bill is now a major hurricane, meaning it has reached at least Category Three status with maximum sustained wind speeds of at least 111mph. As of early Wednesday morning, Bill is a Category Four storm with maximum sustained winds of 135mph, and is moving WNW at 16mph. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to further investigate Hurricane Bill.

As Bill moves around the southern edge of high pressure in the central Atlantic, it should turn to the north this weekend at the same time that a long-wave trough moves into the eastern U.S. This trough should nudge Bill northeast, but if the timing or strength of this approaching upper low changes, this would change Bill's projected turn to the northeast and likely keep it slightly more northerly toward New England.

However, all the long-range track estimates are still in good agreement in projecting this turn northeast.

Hurricane Bill Clockwork

High pressure remains over the central Atlantic, with Hurricane Bill on the southern edge of this ridge. The air flow around this high is clockwise, so Hurricane Bill will move like the hand on a ticking clock clockwise around this high pressure the rest of this week. As of Tuesday morning, Bill is a Category Two hurricane with maximum sustained wind speeds of 100mph, but it is expected to intensify over the next 24 hours to a major hurricane as it moves over slightly warmer surface waters and its structure remains intact in low wind shear.

Bill's Forecast Track Still Uncertain

Hurricane Bill is currently moving WNW along the southern periphery of a broad region of high pressure over the central Atlantic. As Bill nears the east coast it will be nudged northward by a trough of low pressure moving through the eastern US. The timing and southern extent of this trough will be critical in determining the exact track of Bill, and the various hurricane models are having a difficult time predicting how the hurricane and the trough will interact. While the odds still favor Bill staying out to sea, an east coast landfall is not yet out of the question.

Hurricane Bill And Bermuda

Hurricane Bill continues to look like it will remain mostly in the open Atlantic Ocean for most of its life. It will, however, likely pass very near to or over Bermuda Saturday as a major hurricane (at least a Cat 3 with 111-130mph sustained winds). After that, all long-range indications show Bill taking a hard right into the North Atlantic early next week and losing tropical characteristics over the cooler ocean waters.

First Hurricane of the Season!

Early Monday, Bill was upgraded to hurricane status, the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season. While the Atlantic season had been relatively quiet until the end of last week, the average first hurricane typically doesn't occur anyway until August 14. So we're still within reason of the average first hurricane forming.

Bill is currently a Category One storm, with sustained winds around 75 mph. It is expected to strengthen to a Category Three (maximum sustained winds 111-130mph) by the middle of this week, and maintain that strength into this weekend.

As Aaron mentioned previously, the long-range tracks of Bill keep it into the open Atlantic, arcing away from the U.S. East Coast this weekend, and passing into the Northern Atlantic while transitioning to an extra-tropical cyclone over cooler waters.

Still, this track can change, and we'll be monitoring Bill's progress closely this week.

--Carrie

Bill

Latest data is pulling Bill farther north, especially from 96 to 120 hours (Thursday and Friday). Again, it's still too early to get specific about Bill's track beyond this, but let's hope this trend continues! We will be closely tracking it and will bring you more updates through the week.

Data has been somewhat consistent with Bill's strength - it should become a Category 2 or 3 in the next few days.

Ana

Ana will be traveling over lots of land over the next few days, which will probably keep it a tropical depression.

If Ana survives its trek across Cuba and moves into the warm waters of the Gulf, it could reintensify back into a tropical storm. You can see this in the latest data, especially around 72 hours.

Claudette

Claudette will quickly weaken once it moves onshore tonight. The remnants will track close to our area and could bring some rain to the western edge of the state.

Claudette Named

Although this will quickly weaken to a tropical low, the remnants of Claudette will bring the Deep South a lot of rain. We will be tracking this closely because these remnants will slowly drift in our direction later this week.