A Look Ahead

We have yet another chance for wintry weather Tuesday into Wednesday. This is a complex scenario because two storms will merge right over top or us - a potent one from the north, a weaker one from the south. Here is the hour-by-hour forecast for Tuesday into Wednesday. Notice how the precip starts off as a mix, then changes to rain, then ends with snow by early Wednesday.

Communities near Farmville, Charlottesville and Fredericksburg will see much more sleet and snow with this event. Some of this will accumulate, so if you live near these areas, you will want to keep a close eye to the forecast tomorrow. Right now it looks like the brunt of the storm will miss us north, where D.C., Baltimore, and Philly could easily see 8 to 14" of snow!

A lot of people have been asking me about a potential storm this upcoming weekend. Computer forecasts have been very inconsistent with that scenario. Below are several different outputs from the same computer model (GFS ensemble). The circles to our south indicate the low pressure center of the storm. Notice how none of the circles are much farther north than North Carolina. This means that there is a low probability of this storm moving farther north. HOWEVER, things can always change, so we will be keeping a close eye on it!