Last Day of Hurricane Preparedness Tax Break

The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins tomorrow, Tuesday, June 1. Today is the last day you can take advantage of the sales tax break on emergency supplies you might need during a tropical event in the Commonwealth. You can get free sales tax on everything from bottled water to batteries to first aid supplies. For a full list of sales tax exempt items, click here.

The CBS 6 Storm Team is calling for an above average hurricane season as a result of a weakening El Nino and warmer-than-average ocean surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin. El Nino, which has been ongoing since last April, weakened in the last few months. El Nino can create atmospheric shear (different wind speeds and directions at different heights above ground) that can tear apart an organizing storm and prevent it from strengthening further. This seems to be what happened last hurricane season to much of the tropical activity, leading to a slightly below-average season with only one storm impacting the U.S. mainland. In addition, surface ocean temperatures are warmer-than-average, and thus primed to serve as fuel for tropical thunderstorm development. Hurricanes derive their energy from warm ocean waters, and strengthen when they pass over warmer ocean water.


(Richmond, VA during Gaston on August 29, 2004)
Virginia's tropical threats include inland flooding from heavy rain, wind damage, and tornadoes. It is important to prepare now for tropical impacts in the Commonwealth. Make sure you have enough food and water supplies for each member of your household for at least three days. Many of us remember losing power for days, even weeks, after Isabel in September 2003. Gaston from August 2004 is a perfect example of the inland flooding threat, as much of metro Richmond sustained major flash flooding. Ivan from September 2004 is the best example of the tornado threat from a landfalling tropical system, as 40 tornadoes were reported in a single day on September 17 as the tropical depression tracked through Virginia. This is the most tornadoes, of any time of the year, recorded in a single day in Virginia. Prepare now for Hurricane Season 2010.

Today's Rain Totals

With the exception of the Middle Peninsula, most of today's rain stayed along and south of I-64. The dark shades of blue indicate about 1" of rain. The greens and yellows represent near 2" or more.

Recap Of May: Warm & Dry

It's looking like this May will end up being the 8th warmest EVER on record! In addition, it has been a drier than normal month, though some isolated areas have received above normal rainfall. The maps below show departures from normal for both temperatures and rainfall. You will notice that the entire eastern U.S. has been very warm this month.

Isolated Thunderstorms This Afternoon

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the next several hours (movement south/southeast at 5 mph). These storms should quickly diminish after sunset this evening. If you get caught under one of these storms, expect very heavy rain and frequent lightning.

More Storms Possible Friday

After a round of loud, but non-severe, thunderstorms tracked through Central Virginia overnight, we could have more thunderstorms this afternoon and night in the region. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail. Activity will develop during the peak afternoon heating, likely along the West Virginia state line, then track east-southeast over the mountains into Central Virginia late afternoon and evening. The severe threat should rapidly diminish after sunset, and thunderstorms will die out overnight. If you have outdoor plans this evening, stay weather aware! You can point your cell phone's mobile browser to wtvr.com and keep ahead of the storm.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Thursday 5/27

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 9 PM for the northern third of Virginia. Upper level winds will steer storms almost straight south, so we should see thunderstorms headed into parts of central Virginia later this evening and into tonight. Large hail and strong winds will be the primary threat with these storms.

Risk for Severe Storms

Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon to our North as a cold front makes its move south, creating a cluster of storms that may track all the way into Northern Virginia and into the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula late this afternoon and evening. Hence, we have a slight risk for this part of the state:

We could also see isolated afternoon storms develop anywhere in Central Virginia today with peak afternoon heating and humid conditions, and those could also be quite strong. That same approaching cold front on Friday could enhance thunderstorm chances in the afternoon and evening as it tracks into Virginia. It looks like most of us will have a good chance for rain and storms Friday, and some of these storms could be severe with damaging winds and large hail:

Showers may stick around Saturday, too, with mostly cloudy skies, but by Sunday we should be dry and warmer in the 80's.

Surf's Up

As a result of the non-Tropical low pressure system spinning about 450 miles Southeast of North Carolina's coastline, gale force winds, high waves and rough surf are being kicked up from South Carolina to Virginia. Offshore, seas are up to 14 feet. At our beaches in Virginia, waves are up to 8-9 feet along the coast right now. These waves are expected to subside over the next couple of days, but if you're headed out to the beach today for an early start to the holiday weekend, be aware of the rough wave conditions. This low is still not showing signs of becoming sub-tropical, so it will likely weaken and drift northeast over the next couple days.

Tropical Update

The weak and disorganized area of convection in between Bermuda and the Bahamas is showing no signs of strengthening into a sub-tropical storm. There is still a very low chance that these showers and storms may form into Sub-Tropical Storm Alex in the next 48 hours, but it's not likely. This low pressure system will stay offshore, only bringing cloud-cover over the Carolinas and Virginia and higher surf for the end of the week.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially starts a week from today! Make sure you are prepared.

Eying the Tropics

We're one week away from the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season (June 1), and we already have the first stirrings of tropical activity. A non-tropical (i.e., its center is colder than its surroundings as opposed to warmer) low pressure system is currently about 500 miles South-Southwest of Bermuda.

The showers and thunderstorms associated with this low are disorganized and not particularly strong. However, conditions are such that strengthening and organizing of this system is possible in the next two days. If this happens, we could have our first named tropical system of the season, Alex. Check back here for updates!

Thunderstorms Today

An upper-level storm is currently spinning over Virginia. This storm has provided some cooler air in the upper atmosphere which has destabilized our atmosphere. In other words, thunderstorms have developed across the area. These storms are fueled by sunshine, so I'm expecting these to weaken a couple hours after sunset. The strongest storms will be capable of very heavy rain, strong wind gusts, and possibly some small hail.

Here Comes The Sun!

(Dominion Sky Tracker Camera at 8:40 a.m.)

Ah yes, many of you may have a "Spring" in your step today and a sunny song stuck in your head as the sunshine has returned to the Commonwealth after the first half of the week being cloudy, cool, and rainy. Here is our Visible Satellite image taken at 8:15 a.m. You can still see some fog leftover in a few parts of Virginia from early this morning (the white areas):

As high pressure settles into the Mid-Atlantic region from Ohio, we'll have more sunshine and warmer weather to end the workweek. A storm system currently over the Southern Plains will track northeast over the next several days and weaken. By the time it gets to Ohio on Saturday, it will bring us a slight chance for a few afternoon showers and storms Saturday, then a better chance for rain and thunderstorms on Sunday.

Rain Wrapping Up Today

Showers continue early Tuesday morning in most of Central Virginia, with storm total rainfall running 1"-3" in much of the area, with the highest totals south of Petersburg into North Carolina. Here is the storm total rainfall as of 6 a.m. Tuesday:

Richmond International Airport has accumulated 0.87" through 6 a.m. Tuesday, and we should add to that total a little bit thanks to one final round of heavy showers tracking through the Metro right now. Showers will taper off around lunchtime today, though, with rain chances remaining slim until this weekend.

Monday's Rain Potential

This is the type of rain that we've been waiting for...a slow soaking rain that will last on-and-off through the day. This storm system should completely erase our rain deficit by the end of tomorrow. Rain totals could exceed 3" in some isolated spots across the state! We will be tracking this through the day tomorrow and if there are any flooding concerns, we will let you know.

Rain Totals From Last Night

Rain totals were generally around .25 to .5" across central Virginia with higher amounts near the North Carolina state line. Greensville, Brunswick, and Mecklenburg counties picked up 1 to 2" of some much-needed rain. As expected, there were no reports of any damage from last night's storms. An isolated shower will be possible later today, otherwise, it should be a nice end to the weekend.

Showers Spreading Eastward

A batch of thunderstorms over SW Virginia is weakening as it drifts our way. Jet stream winds will guide those showers overhead tonight, especially from Richmond southward to the North Carolina state line. The air is very stable overhead, so I am NOT expecting any severe weather tonight.

Another Lightning Photo

Here is another amazing photo from last night's light show. This was taken by Matt Baker from New Kent. You can always send weather photos to weather@wtvr.com.

Awesome Lightning Photo!

This was taken by John Murden at the Flying Squirrels game. Thanks also to RVAFS for posting this on Twitter!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 PM for the northern third of VA. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will the primary threats with the biggest storms. The air is very unstable across most of central and southern Virginia, so thunderstorms will also be possible for the entire state through this evening and early tonight. If you plan to be outside later today, be aware that the weather could quickly change for the worse.

Severe Potential This Afternoon

We are monitoring for the development of thunderstorms this afternoon in Virginia as a cold front approaches the state and as our afternoon temperatures climb into the upper-80's with ample moisture. Thunderstorms should first form along and east of I-81 in the next couple of hours, then track east-southeast through the afternoon and early evening. Any storms that develop will have a good chance of becoming severe with damaging wind gusts 60-70 mph and large hail. In addition to these threats, heavy rain and frequent lightning will accompany any of the thunderstorms. This will impact outdoor activities this afternoon and evening. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Go inside! You can stay weather aware on your cell phone by pointing your mobile browser to mobile.wtvr.com or on your iPhone with the CBS6 App.

Pictures Of Damage From Yesterday

Here are some more photos of tree damage from Chesterfield and Dinwiddie counties - thanks for sending these! You can always send storm photos to weather@wtvr.com.

More Storms Possible Friday

(viewer submitted picture from May 12, 2010)
Thursday is the break between storm chances in Central Virginia. Wednesday, a large portion of our state was affected by severe thunderstorms tracking rapidly southeast. Here are the severe reports from yesterday:

Today is cloudy and cooler, but we'll have a fast rebound Friday with highs reaching the upper-80's and low-90's in Central Virginia. In addition to the big afternoon warm-up, we'll have the return of southerly flow bringing more of the low-level moisture back into the Mid-Atlantic to serve as fuel for thunderstorms. Notice that dew point temperatures will be in the mid-60's in much of Central Virginia by early Friday afternoon:

The difference between Friday and Wednesday, though, is that the upper lift tomorrow will not be as significant as yesterday, but it will still be present in the afternoon. Here's the upper wave by early evening:

Any storms that form in this environment could therefore become severe with damaging winds, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning.

Showers Linger, Severe Threat Gone

Now we get to enjoy some dessert after the main course earlier this afternoon. Widely scattered showers will persist across the area for the next few hours, then completely dissipate later tonight. Hopefully we can get another quarter inch - we need it!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

All of Central Virginia is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 PM this evening. A powerful batch of thunderstorms is headed this way - large hail and damaging will will be the primary threats.

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon & Eve

Per Zach's discussion yesterday, we have a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in Central Virginia. Here is the updated slight risk map.
The warm front Zach mentioned has lifted to the north of the Commonwealth overnight, and is now draped across Maryland. To the south of this boundary, we have southerly and southwesterly winds ushering in warmer temperatures and low-level moisture. You'll notice it will feel more humid today than the last several days. This moisture and afternoon heating will serve as fuel for thunderstorm development from lunchtime through the evening. The boundary to our north will drift south back into northern Virginia today, and the convergence along this boundary should aid thunderstorm development. Also, an upper-level wave will track over Virginia this afternoon and evening, providing the lift necessary for storms. Storm motion, as Zach mentioned previously, should initially be eastward, with line segment/storm clusters moving east-southeasterly. The stalled boundary will accelerate southward overnight, though, as a cold front with showers and move into North Carolina before sunrise tomorrow. This will bring the return of milder temperatures for Thursday, with highs in the upper-60's and low-70's.

Severe Storms Possible Wednesday

There will be a risk for severe thunderstorms for roughly the northern half of Virginia tomorrow. A warm front will lift northward through the area tonight and will lie across northern Virginia Wednesday morning. Afternoon heating and convergence along the front as well as lift from an approaching upper-level wave, should be sufficient for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes. Storm motion should initially be eastward, with line segment/storm clusters moving east-southeasterly. Stay with CBS 6, We'll Keep You Ahead of the Storm. Zach

Severe Weather Monday in Plains

Severe weather struck the Southern Plains Monday afternoon and evening as multiple tornadoes touched down in Oklahoma and Kansas, killing five in Oklahoma and injuring dozens of others. At least 40 homes were destroyed and more than 100 homes damaged in Oklahoma, as well.

You can watch some of the tornado video here, which we showed on our Tuesday morning newscast:

The same upper storm system responsible for the severe weather yesterday is now tracking into the Upper Midwest today, overspreading rain to the region, including bringing the Commonwealth a chance for scattered showers. Severe threat will exist in primarily Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri today. Unfortunately, this does mean that already-damaged parts of the Southern Plains will be under the gun again today and tomorrow for severe thunderstorms. By Wednesday, the Commonwealth could have scattered thunderstorms, but severe threat is very low in our area because of limited moisture and lift.

Where's The Rain?

Even with a soggy March, we are now officially below normal for rain this year. April was an exceptionally dry month across the Mid-Atlantic and Deep South.

Some of the South has seen rain this month (Tennessee has seen too much), while we have remained dry:


So it makes you wonder - who has seen all the rain so far this year? In the map below, you can see that it has been wet across parts of New England, Tennessee, Florida, Texas and northern California. Louisiana and southern Mississippi have been the driest area of the country.

Dry & Windy!

The front has now passed the area, so the chances for rain are now zero. However, winds have strengthened from the northwest with gusts ranging from 30 to 40 mph. Blustery conditions will persist through the rest of this afternoon, which will contribute to a high fire danger. I'm expecting winds to subside substantially after sunset, though we should have a steady breeze tonight and into Mother's Day.

Summer-like Start to May

As a result of persistent high pressure in the region and good southerly flow, the first days of May have felt more like July in Central Virginia, when average highs are in the upper-80's. Normal high temperatures for early May are in the low-70's, but so far this month, our morning low temperatures have felt more like those highs. Richmond International Airport recorded morning low temperatures in the low-70's on both the 2nd and 3rd! Thursday will be another hot one, with highs around 90 degrees in the region, and high temperatures are still expected to reach the mid-80's Friday and Saturday before a strong cold front moves through. Here's a recap of our Lows and Highs so far this month:

May: (Low Temperature, High Temperature)

1: 58, 89

2: 72, 90

3: 73, 84

4: 63, 86

5: 56, 87

I mentioned a strong cold front coming on Saturday. This will sweep through in the morning and mid-day, allowing cooler, drier air to begin moving into the state. By late afternoon, temperatures will have fallen from the mid-80's to the low-70's. On Mother's Day, highs will only reach the upper-60's and low-70's! But this might be welcome relief for Mom after a week straight of Summer-like heat in Spring.

Less Humid Today

A weak cold front is moving through the Commonwealth this Tuesday morning, not bringing in a cooler air mass, but instead is scouring out some of our low-level moisture that has made the last several days so humid. Skies are already clearing in western parts of the state, as seen here in the visible satellite image taken at 7:45 AM.

Highs will still run above average all week in the 80's until our next storm system brings a stronger cold front through on Saturday. Showers and storms will be possible with this system. Once the front clears, much cooler air will move into the Mid-Atlantic. Mother's Day should be mostly sunny and cooler with morning temperatures in the 40's and afternoon highs in the upper-60's. If Mama doesn't like the heat and humidity, she'll love Mother's Day! Gotta keep Mama happy, y'all.

Heavy Rain Tracking Eastward

The storm system that produced deadly flooding in Tennessee over the weekend is tracking eastward Monday, dumping more heavy rain on Alabama, Georgia, and later today on the Carolinas. Virginia will likely be spared the widespread torrential downpours, but showers and scattered thunderstorms will be possible today in the Commonwealth as the storm system approaches the East Coast. The cold front associated with this system will sweep through this evening, ending our rain chances. Here's a look at the surface map early Monday morning:
Rainfall totals have been highest in Tennessee, where heavy rainfall "trained" over the same areas for hours. The eastward progression of the precipitation was slow, meaning that as showers and storms tracked northeast within the line, the same locations kept receiving more and more rain. Here are some of the totals from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center:
Camden, TN 17.73"
Jackson, TN 16.57"
Nashville, TN 13.57"
Medina, TN 12.88"
Belle Meade, TN 12.54"
Elkton, KY 9.3"
Sardis Dam, MS 7.44"
Little Rock, AR 6.53"
Lexington, KY 6.03"
Tupelo, MS 4.97"

In Central Virginia, we should pick up a quarter of an inch or less of rain, but higher totals will be possible in the locations affected by thunderstorms today. Although the severe threat is very low in our area (we are not under a Slight Risk), any storms that develop can produce heavy downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. The most likely time for storms to develop will be from lunchtime through the afternoon during peak heating into the low-80's.

Weather Update - 9:20 PM

We've got plenty of heat and humidity to fuel thunderstorms for tonight, however, we don't have a "trigger" to spark any development. With the exception of a renegade shower, we should stay dry for the next several hours.

A small upper level disturbance is currently bringing thunderstorms to Mississippi and Alabama. This disturbance will glide along the jet stream into our area tomorrow morning and bring us a better chance for rain. After that batch of rain exits, a few isolated thunderstorms could pop up in the early afternoon, then we should dry off in the evening.

I thought I would share this computer forecast with you because I think it does a good job handling this situation.



Clouds will limit daytime heating from the sun, so the threat for severe storms looks low. Regardless, one or two storms could still become severe, so we will be tracking it closely!

Isolated Showers North Of I-64

Showers are quickly moving to the east and I'm expecting skies to clear out heading into the afternoon. Clouds will return by the evening with an isolated shower possible after sunset.

April 2010 The Fourth Warmest Ever

If you average out all the high and low temperatures from this past April, you will end up with 62.2 degrees. Although this doesn't seem like a high number, it is actually the fourth warmest April on record! Here are the top five:

1. 63.3 in 1891
2. 63.2 in 1994
3. 62.5 in 1886
4. 62.2 in 2010
5. 62.0 in 1985
   

We weren't the only ones dealing with the heat. It was very warm for most of the eastern half of the United States...especially in the upper Midwest.