Heavy Rain Tracking Eastward

The storm system that produced deadly flooding in Tennessee over the weekend is tracking eastward Monday, dumping more heavy rain on Alabama, Georgia, and later today on the Carolinas. Virginia will likely be spared the widespread torrential downpours, but showers and scattered thunderstorms will be possible today in the Commonwealth as the storm system approaches the East Coast. The cold front associated with this system will sweep through this evening, ending our rain chances. Here's a look at the surface map early Monday morning:
Rainfall totals have been highest in Tennessee, where heavy rainfall "trained" over the same areas for hours. The eastward progression of the precipitation was slow, meaning that as showers and storms tracked northeast within the line, the same locations kept receiving more and more rain. Here are some of the totals from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center:
Camden, TN 17.73"
Jackson, TN 16.57"
Nashville, TN 13.57"
Medina, TN 12.88"
Belle Meade, TN 12.54"
Elkton, KY 9.3"
Sardis Dam, MS 7.44"
Little Rock, AR 6.53"
Lexington, KY 6.03"
Tupelo, MS 4.97"

In Central Virginia, we should pick up a quarter of an inch or less of rain, but higher totals will be possible in the locations affected by thunderstorms today. Although the severe threat is very low in our area (we are not under a Slight Risk), any storms that develop can produce heavy downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. The most likely time for storms to develop will be from lunchtime through the afternoon during peak heating into the low-80's.