Cool Lightning Video

I want to share with you this amazing slow motion video of a lightning strike. Enjoy! If you want to learn more about how lightning forms, click on the link below:

http://www.srh.weather.gov/jetstream/lightning/lightning_max.htm

New Record: Most 100 Degree Days in a Year

2010 simply won't quit with the heat records. First we had our hottest Spring on record at Richmond International Airport. Next was the hottest June, and we're almost at the finish line for the hottest July on the books. But Thursday afternoon, our high temperature spiked at 101 degrees (tying the record high for that date) ahead of an approaching cold front that triggered severe storms across the Commonwealth. Thursday, July 29, marked the 10th day this year we've been 100 degrees or hotter. This is the most to ever occur in a single year, surpassing the old record of 9 days from 1954.

Storm Damage in Monacan Hills & Smoketree Neighborhoods

Smoketree neighborhood near Monacan High School.

Monacan Hills neighborhood: tree uprooted onto house.

Tree damage at the entrance to the Monacan High School Stadium.

Tree split in the Monacan High School student parking lot.

All photos are from CBS6 viewer Daniel Carter.

West End Damage Photos

These were taken by Nick Dawson near Libbie and Patterson.

Midlothian Damage Photos

These were taken by Daniel Carter.

Twin Hickory Damage Photos

Thanks to Carrie Fleck for these photos.

Storm Photos

Here are some photos sent to us from the West End, where powerful winds caused widespread damage and lightning sparked a few fires.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 7PM

As a cold front moves into the state, where there is ample low-level moisture and very hot afternoon temperatures, strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to develop. The primary threat will be for damaging straight line winds in excess of 65 mph, but there may also be one inch diameter hail with the strongest storms. We'll be monitoring the situation through the afternoon!

Cold Front Will Bring Risk For Severe Storms

The cold front I covered in the previous blog entry will be moving into very moist air in the Mid-Atlantic. During the hottest part of the day, the front may serve as the necessary forcing mechanism to kick off clusters of thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts. If these storms can coalesce into a line of storms, the line can produce locally strong straight-line winds at the surface, especially if the shape of the line bows out a little. Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm!

Cold Front Coming Thursday

A cold front will move through the Commonwealth later Thursday, ushering in a much less humid air mass to the region for Friday. Morning temperatures across the state Friday should fall into the 60's, a rare treat this July when only a handful of mornings have made it that low. Here are the only days Richmond reported low temperatures below 70 degrees, a couple of them just barely there:

July 27: 69 degrees

July 11: 69 degrees

July 5: 66 degrees

July 4: 61 degrees

July 3: 56 degrees

July 2: 58 degrees
July 1: 63 degrees

Through Wednesday, our average July temperature (82.9 degrees F) is still hotter than the hottest July currently on record, 1993 (82.4 degrees F). We've still got three days to maintain that top spot before the end of the month!

Ridge Flattens Just Enough For Some Relief

Our weather this summer has been largely governed by an upper-level pattern that has kept the storm track and all associated cool fronts north of the area. This ridge has finally flattened just enough to bring a couple of cool fronts into the area. The first arrived Sunday night, the second will arrive Thursday afternoon, and we'll get a third over the weekend. This pattern will keep lows and highs fairly close to seasonal averages over the next 5 to 7 days. There is some indication, however, of the ridge building back in next week, resulting in another stretch of above-normal temps.

Summer Night Sky Show

Have you been cooped up indoors the past few days because of the dangerous heat? Well after last night's cool front, high temperatures this week will stay in the low- to mid-90's. Although this is still hot, the plus-side of our hotter-than-normal Summer is that evenings can be comfortably warm for outdoor activities. No sweater (or sweat) required! And tonight is one of those nights where skies should be mostly clear and temperatures in the 80's after sunset at 8:24 p.m. in Richmond. The just-past Full Moon will rise at 8:40 p.m. in the East, so looking West, your view will be excellent of several planets aligned:

(Image: SpaceWeather.com)
This alignment will shift a little over the next week, but still provide great viewing of the planets, so keep looking west after sunset when the skies are clear.

Record High Round-up

For those of you who just can't get enough of statistics, here's a recap of the various records we have broken in recent days, and those we could break in coming days and weeks.

Saturday and Sunday both set new record highs at 105 degrees each for those dates (the old records to beat for both days were 99 degrees).

All-time Record Hottest Temperatures in Richmond:

1.) 107 degrees (August 6, 1918)

2.) 106 degrees (August 7, 1918)

3.) 105 degrees (July 25, 2010 & July 24, 2010 & July 6, 1977)

Most 100 degree days in a year: 9 (2010 & 1954) TIE

1952, 1953, and 1977 all had 8 days 100+

Through Sunday, July 25, Richmond has reported 47 days 90 degrees or hotter. This is already above the average number of 90 degree days we see in an entire year (40). The most 90 degree days in a single year on record is 70 from 1977.

Reminder: We just had the hottest Spring on record in Richmond and also the hottest June on record. We are currently on track, as Aaron mentioned in the previous blog entry, to have the hottest July on record. Our average temperature through Sunday stands at 83.1 degrees, above the current top spot holder of 1993 with an average July temperature of 82.4 degrees.

Some More Calculations

We've been talking about the possibility of this July being the hottest on record. If our extended forecast verifies, we should easily break the old record. When I plugged in our forecasted highs and lows, the average temperature for this month ends up at 82.87, which would break the old record of 82.4 set back in 1993. This summer continues to become more historical by the moment...let's just hope we can get some more rain soon!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 8 PM Sunday

The watch is in effect for the northern two-thirds of Virginia with damaging winds being the primary threat. Richmond southwards to the North Carolina state line are not in the watch, however, thunderstorms will be possible across the entire area later this evening.

Record High Shattered

Today was the hottest day of the summer with a high of 105. Some areas could even be hotter tomorrow! Here is a list of the five hottest days so far this summer:

1) 105...Today
2) 104...July 7
3) 103...July 6
4) 102...June 28
5) 102...June 27

Here is a link to all of Richmond's climate if you want to dig through the numbers some more:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=akq

Bonnie Makes Landfall in Florida

Tropical Storm Bonnie made landfall at 11 a.m. Eastern Friday near Cutler Bay in Florida south of Miami in Miami-Dade County. Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be at 40 mph, which is just barely within tropical storm strength (must be 39 mph to qualify as a Tropical Storm and not a Depression). Bonnie is bringing heavy squalls to southern Florida this afternoon with gusty winds, and there may be a threat for a few quick, isolated tornadoes as well. As a result of that strong ridge of high pressure over the Southeast U.S., upper-level winds will steer Bonnie to the northwest in the Gulf of Mexico, where she will make a beeline for the Louisiana-Mississippi Gulf coast. This will, unfortunately, take Bonnie directly over the oil spill region, where cleanup efforts have been halted until the storm passes.

Bonnie may strengthen slightly as she moves over the Gulf of Mexico, but not enough to become a hurricane. She should remain on the low-end of tropical storm strength for the rest of her life, which will come to an abrupt end as she makes landfall either very late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

Remember, you can utilize our Hurricane Tracker tool on our website!

Heat Advisory Friday Afternoon

A Heat Advisory is in effect from Noon through 7 p.m. for all of our region (including Fauquier County, even though the shading is missing above) as a result of the dangerous combination of high heat and humidity. High temperatures will be in the upper-90's and low-100's this afternoon, with heat index values ranging 105-109 degrees for several hours. Minimize outdoor exposure and activity as much as possible, and drink more water than you usually would. For an average adult, that would up your daily water intake from two liters to three liters. For a child, that's about two liters of water needed on a really hot day. For information on heat-related illnesses, visit the Red Cross.

Tropical Storm Bonnie Update Friday Morning

Tropical Storm Bonnie, which strengthened Thursday over the Bahamas from Tropical Depression #3, is approaching southern Florida this Friday morning. Bonnie will affect the Keys and the southern half of Florida today with local heavy downpours and sustained winds around 40 mph with some higher gusts. A northwest track is expected the rest of the weekend as upper winds steer the Tropical Storm around a dome of high pressure parked over the Southeast U.S. (the same ridge that is producing a dangerous heat wave in the Deep South and the Mid-Atlantic). This track takes Bonnie straight for the Gulf oil spill cleanup region, and will likely lead to a landfall around Louisiana by Sunday evening as a Tropical Storm.

Not much strengthening is expected over the weekend, as upper-level winds will prevent better organization of the system. Most model data indicates the current strength will be maintained or strengthen slightly, at best.

Record Highs In Jeopardy

Here are the record highs for the next three days:

Friday...103 set in 1952
Saturday...99 set in 1995
Sunday...99 set in 1987

It will be close on Friday, but we should definitely break the record on Saturday and Sunday.

Tropical Depression #3 Forms

As of 11 a.m. EDT, Tropical Depression #3 has formed, and Bonnie may be soon to follow once the U.S. Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft thoroughly investigates the depression this afternoon. The center of circulation is 265 miles southeast of Nassau, Bahamas, and the system is tracking west-northwest at 15 mph. TD #3 should accelerate during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are about 35 mph with higher gusts, and with further strengthening possible today, this system should become Tropical Storm Bonnie later Thursday. The same broad ridge of high pressure that is currently bringing a heat wave to the Southeast U.S. and into Virginia is going to steer TD#3 to the west-northwest over the Florida Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico into this weekend. Tropical Storm force winds have been reported in the southeastern Bahamas, and should affect the rest of the Bahama Islands through Friday. South Florida will be impacted by TD#3 starting Friday with several inches of rainfall and gusty winds. As much as five to six inches of rain is possible in south Florida. Storm surge in the low-lying Bahamas and Florida Keys may raise water levels as much as two feet above ground level.

This map shows the blue highlighted locations now in a Tropical Storm Warning including south Florida. The yellow on the southeast Florida Atlantic coast is a Tropical Storm Watch.

The track provided here by the National Hurricane Center is in line with the morning's model forecast tracks I showed you in my previous blog posting. Tropical Depression #3 may be Tropical Storm Bonnie as it tracks over the Gulf oil spill region over the weekend.

Is Tropical Storm Bonnie Soon To Be Born?

The shower and storm activity that has been disorganized all week is finally getting its act together, and fast. You can see in this visible satellite image of the system over the Bahamas that there is better organization and growth. Observations from the Bahamas indicate the critical closed circulation is now present. The National Hurricane Center expects to issue either a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm notice at 11 a.m. EDT. They anticipate issuing Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for part of the Bahamas and southern Florida. Here are the morning forecast model tracks for this system:

Tropics Update Thursday Morning

A still disorganized area of showers and storms in the southeastern Bahamas has a good chance today to develop a center of circulation and strengthen into a Tropical Depression or possibly Tropical Storm Bonnie. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to fly through the system to investigate it this afternoon. Regardless of whether or not this organization can occur, this complex will track over the Bahamas and the southern half of Florida into the end of this week, bringing heavy showers and gusty winds. What's left of this system will then enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico, near where crews are working to clean up the Gulf oil spill. Even if this system isn't strong enough to be a Depression or a Storm, it will still bring choppy seas and rain, which is enough to disrupt clean-up efforts by the end of the week into the weekend.

Another tropical disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico west of the Yucatan Peninsula is also being monitored for some strengthening as it heads toward Mexico.

This one shouldn't impact the U.S., but will bring heavy rain to central Mexico.

Tropics Update - 3 PM Wednesday

The thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave has become more robust this afternoon, but still doesn't look as good as it did yesterday. Upper level winds should relax in the next couple days as this wave continues to move to the northwest. During this time, it could strengthen to a depression or tropical storm.

Weather Update Wednesday Mid-Day

The slight risk for severe storms now covers the entire Commonwealth. Just like in previous days this week, scattered afternoon and evening storms that develop in our hot and humid environment could have damaging wind gusts in excess of 65 mph. No watches have been issued yet for our area, but we'll keep you posted!

Something Brewing in the Tropics

A still disorganized area of shower and thunderstorm activity around Hispaniola and Puerto Rico (clouds on the right side of satellite image above) has a high probability of getting that much-needed center of circulation over the next 48 hours to strengthen into either a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Bonnie. Movement is to the west-northwest at 10 mph toward the southeastern Bahamas. This complex is producing heavy rainfall in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and will probably dump heavy rain on the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southern Bahamas. But you can see this Wednesday morning that there is still no discernible center of circulation. Much of the deep convection is well to the east of where the center is expected to form.

If this can organize, model data indicates the track of this system will pass right over the Bahamas to southeast Florida at the end of the workweek. Winds could be at tropical storm force when reaching Florida (at least 39 mph sustained wind speeds).

More Storms Possible Wednesday

The upper-level pattern we've been in all week continues today, where a series of disturbances track over our region along an upper jet stream just to our north. With the high heat and humidity at the surface, storms result from the additional upper lift provided by these waves. As in recent days, some of these storms can become severe with damaging straight line winds greater than 65 mph. There may also be some hail around quarter-size in the strongest storms, but wind still looks like our primary threat. Any of these storms can produce heavy downpours and frequent lightning. Stay with CBS6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 8 PM

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8 p.m. for the yellow highlighted counties. Strong thunderstorms capable of damaging winds in excess of 65 mph are possible, with large hail potentially as well. Check back often for updates, and we'll keep you ahead of the storm!

Few Severe Storms Possible Tuesday

Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected again today in the area, as it is both very hot and humid. In addition, we continue to be in an upper-level pattern supportive of thunderstorm development as atmospheric waves (disturbances) track over the region. Although nearly the entire state is blanketed in this slight risk for severe storms today, this does not mean everyone will see rain or storms. But for those of you who do get a storm, it could be one with damaging wind gusts. Storm movement should be to the east at about 20-30 mph. Any of these showers and storms today will have local heavy downpours and potentially a lot of lightning. Stay weather aware if you're outdoors this afternoon and evening! Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck. Move indoors and away from windows and electronics. Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.

Dwindling Rain Chances & More 100's Coming

Today should be the last day with decent rain chances in central Virginia this week. Scattered showers and storms will be possible in the area, mainly this afternoon and early evening, as an upper wave in the atmosphere tracks over the mid-Atlantic. Although our severe threat is very low (the higher risk is to Virginia's northeast), some of our storms could produce gusty winds for localized wind damage. Any of these storms will be capable of brief heavy downpours and lightning. Rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday are lower, but because of the heat and humidity, a few showers and storms are possible both afternoons. After that, though, we should be in for several days with highs around 100 degrees in central Virginia as a strong ridge expands over the Commonwealth. This is the same ridge that produced high heat in the southern Plains and parts of the Mississippi valley region last week into the weekend. As Aaron mentioned in a previous blog entry over the weekend, it doesn't appear that our warmer-than-normal temperatures will be going away anytime soon. Here is the latest three month temperature outlook for the U.S.:

Unfortunately, the precipitation outlook for Virginia isn't optimistic:

The most effective way for us to make up our precipitation deficit (about 5.5" inches below average year-to-date in Richmond right now) into the Fall would be for one or two tropical systems or their remnants to move over Virginia and dump widespread heavy rainfall. The downside of that, though, is flash flooding and potential wind damage and tornadoes that accompany tropical systems making landfall. It's a Catch-22, really. Nevertheless, the short-term drought is not likely to continue long-term, especially if we keep getting these showers and storms that produce locally heavy rainfall. Here's the Drought Outlook through October, which shows improvement for our moderate drought areas in the Commonwealth:

Rain Totals - Sunday, July 18