Winter Storm Watch in Effect: Snow & Ice

A winter storm watch has been issued for all of central Virginia, with the expectation of another round of winter weather moving into the area on Tuesday. The precipitation should begin late Tuesday morning in the metro area as light snow. The snow will likely mix with sleet by mid afternoon, and will eventually change to freezing rain close to sunset. Surface temperatures should remain at or below freezing for a period of 6 to 9 hours as it continues to rain, allowing an appreciable accretion of ice on elevated objects and some roadways. The freezing rain will change back to snow a few hours after midnight, with snow tapering off during the morning Wednesday. Deepening low pressure just off the coast will create strong northwest winds Wednesday that could result in power outages, especially in areas that receive a good coating of ice on trees and power lines. Stay with CBS 6, We'll Keep You Ahead of the Storm.

More Snow For Northern Virginia

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night, where there is the potential for 5" or more of snowfall during this timeframe in the highlighted counties. This would be on top of deep snowcover already in the region. Check out the visible satellite image:

See the line in southeast Pennsylvania into northern Maryland? That's the Susquehanna River.
South of the Watch area, snowfall accumulation is also possible, with up to an inch as far south as the Richmond metro and Farmville. What appears to be of a greater concern, though, is the potential for freezing rain Tuesday evening as surface temperatures dip below freezing while precipitation falls in liquid form. Colder air will move into the state aloft pre-dawn Wednesday, allowing precipitation to change over to snow. Snow showers will be possible through Wednesday morning in Central Virginia as the storm exits to the east.

A Look Ahead

We have yet another chance for wintry weather Tuesday into Wednesday. This is a complex scenario because two storms will merge right over top or us - a potent one from the north, a weaker one from the south. Here is the hour-by-hour forecast for Tuesday into Wednesday. Notice how the precip starts off as a mix, then changes to rain, then ends with snow by early Wednesday.

Communities near Farmville, Charlottesville and Fredericksburg will see much more sleet and snow with this event. Some of this will accumulate, so if you live near these areas, you will want to keep a close eye to the forecast tomorrow. Right now it looks like the brunt of the storm will miss us north, where D.C., Baltimore, and Philly could easily see 8 to 14" of snow!

A lot of people have been asking me about a potential storm this upcoming weekend. Computer forecasts have been very inconsistent with that scenario. Below are several different outputs from the same computer model (GFS ensemble). The circles to our south indicate the low pressure center of the storm. Notice how none of the circles are much farther north than North Carolina. This means that there is a low probability of this storm moving farther north. HOWEVER, things can always change, so we will be keeping a close eye on it!