An east-west warm front will lift back into Central Virginia Monday as a low pressure system tracks through Northern Virginia. This front will stall at the Richmond metro area around lunchtime, and will serve as the focus for thunderstorm development during peak afternoon heating hours. Some of the storms could reach severe limits, with damaging wind gusts and large hail being the primary threats, in addition to heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.
You can see on the below graphic of dewpoint temperatures and lifted indices where the front will be located early this afternoon. (It's where all the blue lines are scrunched close together across Central Virginia from approximately East to West.) To the south of this front is the better moisture and warmth, which will be a conducive environment for thunderstorm development this afternoon.
South of the front is also where the better instability will be located, as indicated by the higher CAPE values.
Thunderstorms will move into far Southeast Virginia this evening, leaving only slight rain chances in Central Virginia overnight and Tuesday.
--Carrie
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