Monday, November 3, 2008

Will Rain Help Out McCain?

According to an extensive study of fourteen presidential elections (here is the link to the abstract), weather can have an impact on voter turnout. In general, people are less likely to vote when either rain or snow is falling from the sky (cold air has a minimal effect). In addition, Democrats are less likely to vote in inclement weather than Republicans.

Looking at the latest data, rain still looks possible tomorrow, especially in the afternoon. So you have to wonder: will it have an impact on the outcome in Virginia?

Other states that will see some rain or snow: North Carolina, South Carolina, California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, western Colorado, Wyoming and Montana.

Here is the latest satellite/radar composite as of 1 PM.