Sunday, April 19, 2009

Severe Potential Tomorrow

Scattered showers will persist through tonight and into tomorrow morning. The air is too stable for thunderstorms to form during this time period.

Hit-and-miss showers will be possible on Monday with a chance for strong thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. During this time, the atmosphere will become unstable:


Also, there will be strong convergence at the surface:


Lastly, jet stream winds will also be strong enough to produce speed shear:


For these reasons, severe storms will be possible.


The big question heading into tomorrow: how unstable will the atmosphere become? If we see a little sunshine, then the chances for severe storms will increase. If we're socked in clouds and rain all day, then the chances decrease.