Saturday, February 5, 2011

Update On Thursday's Snow Potential

As always, I want to start this discussion with a disclaimer. This is just a preview of the upcoming storm and not an official forecast. Things will change from now until Thursday.

The computer forecasts have been surprisingly consistent with the timing of this upcoming storm. In fact, they are now fairly consistent with the track. However, there are still some differences in the intensity. This will have a major impact on our forecast! Check out the maps below from two computer forecasts (ECMWF, GFS)

I will say this - that the second computer (GFS), has been very unreliable this winter. At this point, I leaning towards the first computer because it has been very consistent with this storm. I'm a little skeptical about its forecast accumulations, but I think our chances for snow continues to increase each and every day. For this reason, I've increased our snow chances to 60% on Thursday. Obviously it's too early to start forecasting snow amounts. We will continue to track this storm very carefully and bring you frequent updates in the coming days!

I've posted a couple maps below for the weather geeks like me. These are the 1000-500 mb thickness and mean sea level pressure for 1 PM Thursday. You can see how much more powerful the ECMWF is compared to the GFS (indicated by the tightly packed isobars).