The system is expected to be at roughly 70 degrees west and 23 degrees north and on a northwesterly track on Monday morning. An upper-level trough is depicted by some of the medium range models to be in place which would help to erode the subtropical ridge and impart a more northerly turn to Maria by the middle of next week. There is a quick shift, however, to more of a ridge across the eastern U.S. later in the week, which could be more favorable for an East Coast landfall. Needless to say, Maria will be in interesting storm to track over the next week, as much could change in the eventual course. Another system is in the developing stage in the Gulf of Mexico. Here's the latest spaghetti plot of model guidance for this disturbance:
I'll continue to track these systems and bring you updates over the next several days. -Zach
This disturbance is not even a tropical depression at the time of this blog entry, but given the intensity forecast below, there's the likelihood of this becoming Tropical Depression Fifteen and then Tropical Storm Nate.