Tropics Update - 3 PM Wednesday

The thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave has become more robust this afternoon, but still doesn't look as good as it did yesterday. Upper level winds should relax in the next couple days as this wave continues to move to the northwest. During this time, it could strengthen to a depression or tropical storm.

Weather Update Wednesday Mid-Day

The slight risk for severe storms now covers the entire Commonwealth. Just like in previous days this week, scattered afternoon and evening storms that develop in our hot and humid environment could have damaging wind gusts in excess of 65 mph. No watches have been issued yet for our area, but we'll keep you posted!

Something Brewing in the Tropics

A still disorganized area of shower and thunderstorm activity around Hispaniola and Puerto Rico (clouds on the right side of satellite image above) has a high probability of getting that much-needed center of circulation over the next 48 hours to strengthen into either a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Bonnie. Movement is to the west-northwest at 10 mph toward the southeastern Bahamas. This complex is producing heavy rainfall in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and will probably dump heavy rain on the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southern Bahamas. But you can see this Wednesday morning that there is still no discernible center of circulation. Much of the deep convection is well to the east of where the center is expected to form.

If this can organize, model data indicates the track of this system will pass right over the Bahamas to southeast Florida at the end of the workweek. Winds could be at tropical storm force when reaching Florida (at least 39 mph sustained wind speeds).

More Storms Possible Wednesday

The upper-level pattern we've been in all week continues today, where a series of disturbances track over our region along an upper jet stream just to our north. With the high heat and humidity at the surface, storms result from the additional upper lift provided by these waves. As in recent days, some of these storms can become severe with damaging straight line winds greater than 65 mph. There may also be some hail around quarter-size in the strongest storms, but wind still looks like our primary threat. Any of these storms can produce heavy downpours and frequent lightning. Stay with CBS6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.