Friday is looking like your classic "over-running" snow event. This is when large amounts of warm moist air is pumped up on top of a cold air mass. Usually this will create a wide swath of moderate to heavy snow. There are still some uncertainties on the placement of the front, which will be key to who will see the heaviest snow.
Also, the ECMWF (a reliable model) shows a coastal low developing on Saturday. It has this low hugging the coastline as it heads up to New England. The ECMWF ensemble (even more reliable) shows this low a little farther off the coast with colder conditions, which would be more favorable for snow in our region. At this point, I would say a storm is looking more and more likely. However, as we all know...track is everything! A lot will change from now and then, so we will continue to bring you updates.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
We have a chance for a wintry mix Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. Best chances to see this mix will be along and west of I-95. I've posted some maps below to help you see what to expect. The shades of blue are snow, pink are a mix, green is rain. Notice that temps hover in the mid 30s across most of central VA, so most wintry precip will melt on impact (if any falls). A few isolated slick spots could develop farther west, where the air will be colder.