Sunday, January 30, 2011

Update On Wintry Weather This Week

Warm air is going to surge into our area by midweek. The leading edge of this warm air will create a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet (ice pellets). The best chances to see this mix will be from 7 PM Monday until 7 AM Tuesday. In addition, it will generally stay along and west of I-95. I've posted some maps below to give you a timeline of the event. We should be in the clear by 10 AM Tuesday as the precip lifts north and temperatures rise into the mid 30s.

As you can see on the map below, the accumulating snows will stay well north of our area.

Another storm system will pass our area Friday into Saturday. Normally I would be worried about a storm moving in from the south along the coastline, however, right now it loooks like a rain event to me. There are two problems with this storm.
  1. The track is too close to the coast
  2. Cold air moves in too late (if at all)
I've posted a map of the ECMWF ensemble: a very reliable computer forecast. It has been consistent with this storm for the past couple days and brings rain to our area late Friday evening and into early Saturday. I think this is a plausible solution and will keep a 30% chance for rain on both Friday and Saturday.