2011 NOAA Forecast:
- 12-18 Named Storms (39 mph+ sustained winds)
- 6-10 of those will become Hurricanes (74 mph+ sustained winds)
- 3-6 of those hurricanes will become Major Hurricanes of Category 3-5 (111 mph+ winds)
- 11 Named Storms
- 6 of those become Hurricanes
- 2 become Major Hurricanes of Category 3-5
Watch this video for more details on the forecast and what impacts the tropical season tends to have for us here in Virginia:
The above-average forecast is primarily as a result of the following factors:
- We continue to be in a "high activity era" of enhanced tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin
- Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic where tropical cyclones form are currently two degrees Fahrenheit above-average. This warmer-than-normal water will serve as an excellent fuel source for developing storms.
- Even though La Nina in the equatorial Pacific is weakening, lower wind shear should linger in the Atlantic into Hurricane Season.