Sunday, May 29, 2011

Watching The Tropics

Hurricane season officially starts June 1st and it already looks like we might have something brewing in the tropics. Latest data this morning shows something forming in the western Caribbean by the end of the upcoming workweek. Satellite imagery shows lots of thunderstorm activity in this area, but nothing too organized.

Regardless, wind shear will weaken in the tropics over the next few days, so this cluster could become better organized in the next few days. In fact, most of the global computer forecasts show an area of low pressure forming by the end of the upcoming workweek (indicated by the green circle in the western Caribbean).

Tropical systems typically form in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean early in June (see map below), so this is a plausible forecast. We will be watching this very closely over the next several days and will have more updates.