Saturday, August 1, 2009

Severe Potential On Sunday

A fast-moving upper level storm system will pass the area tomorrow and bring scattered showers to the area. Although temperatures will remain in the mid 80s, it will be very humid. This will provide enough fuel for a few thunderstorms to develop. However, there are two limiting factors to tomorrow's severe potential:

1) Cloud cover
I'm expecting most of the day to remain cloudy. This will prevent any daytime heating from the sun...a key ingredient for severe weather.

2) Timing
It looks like showers will move in quickly tomorrow, possibly by late morning for our western communities. This will also prevent the atmosphere from destabilizing.

Best chances for isolated severe storms will be along and east of I-95, where I'm expecting the most unstable air. It's something I'm watching very closely. I'll have another update tomorrow morning!

Isolated Showers West Of I-95

Extremely isolated thunderstorms have popped up in the Blue Ridge and western Piedmont over the past few hours. These are drifting very slowly to the ENE at 5 to 10 mph. A stray shower could try to sneak into central Virginia tonight, however, the chances for rain will be slim (less than 20%).