Monday, November 9, 2009

Ida Downgraded To Tropical Storm


Ida has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm at 10 a.m. Monday, with maximum sustained winds of 70mph. Wind shear has been efficiently eroding the circulation this morning, and further weakening is expected until Ida makes landfall overnight tonight.

Update: Ida Weakens Further


The latest data on Hurricane Ida shows the storm has continued to weaken early Monday morning, now down to maximum sustained winds at 80mph. Movement is still to the NNW at 16mph. Ida should make landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on the Gulf Coast shortly after midnight tonight into early Tuesday morning.
Ida will cause a storm surge of 3-6 feet along the eastern Gulf Coast. The areas highlighted in green below have a chance of at least a 3 ft storm surge.


In addition, Ida and its remnants will bring several inches of rainfall to the Southeast through Thursday morning. Here is the projected rainfall accumulation:

Ida A Little Weaker Monday Morning


Hurricane Ida was downgraded early Monday morning to a Category One storm with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph. Overnight the storm began encountering greater wind shear (different wind speeds/directions at different heights in the atmosphere), which disrupted the organization of the system. Also, the northern Gulf waters are cooler, and will mean less energy to fuel the hurricane. However, Ida should still be a Category One hurricane when it makes landfall after midnight Tuesday near the Alabama Gulf Coastline. By Wednesday, the remnants of Ida will be absorbed into a cold front and upper-level system sweeping into the Southeast. Strong high pressure looks like it will settle into Virginia behind that upper U.S. system mid-week, and that would prevent Ida's remnants from heading to Virginia.

However, if the timing of the U.S. front changes, then Ida would continue to track northeast through the Carolinas and significantly impact Virginia's weather mid-week.