Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Tropics Update: More Activity Next Week?

We had a rush of tropical activity leading up to the peak of hurricane season on Sept. 10th, but it has been pretty quiet ever since, with only the anemic Maria floundering in the western Atlantic. The medium range models continue to suggest we'll see a couple of systems try to develop next week, and given the proximity to the peak of the season and several disturbances coming off the west African coast, this seems reasonable. Below is a plot of tropical storm and hurricane frequency throughout the hurricane season, and you can see we're still very much in the meat of the peak time for tropical activity. Above is a plot of tropical cyclone origin during the September 11-20 ten-day time period which we are in right now, and over the years we've seen development in nearly all areas of the Atlantic Basin. Enjoy the lull while we have it! -Zach