Regardless, wind shear will weaken in the tropics over the next few days, so this cluster could become better organized in the next few days. In fact, most of the global computer forecasts show an area of low pressure forming by the end of the upcoming workweek (indicated by the green circle in the western Caribbean).



Tropical systems typically form in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean early in June (see map below), so this is a plausible forecast. We will be watching this very closely over the next several days and will have more updates.

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