Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Something Brewing in the Tropics

A still disorganized area of shower and thunderstorm activity around Hispaniola and Puerto Rico (clouds on the right side of satellite image above) has a high probability of getting that much-needed center of circulation over the next 48 hours to strengthen into either a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Bonnie. Movement is to the west-northwest at 10 mph toward the southeastern Bahamas. This complex is producing heavy rainfall in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and will probably dump heavy rain on the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southern Bahamas. But you can see this Wednesday morning that there is still no discernible center of circulation. Much of the deep convection is well to the east of where the center is expected to form.
If this can organize, model data indicates the track of this system will pass right over the Bahamas to southeast Florida at the end of the workweek. Winds could be at tropical storm force when reaching Florida (at least 39 mph sustained wind speeds).

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