Thursday, June 10, 2010

El Nino Update

El Nino ended in May across the Equatorial Pacific with ENSO-neutral conditions now. Not only have sea surface temperatures fallen into the neutral range, they continue to fall and will likely be within La Nina conditions this Summer. Many of the computer model forecasts are beginning to agree that La Nina will settle in this Summer and continue the rest of the year. The NCEP CFS forecast is the heavy blue line:
It is not always the case, but there has been some research to indicate that the Atlantic Hurricane Season is enhanced during La Nina events. Last year's hurricane season confirmed the opposite, that during an El Nino year Atlantic hurricane activity is suppressed. We are already calling for an above-average hurricane season as a result of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, and with the additional support of low wind shear from La Nina we should be on track for an active season.

Right now, tropical activity is low in the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic Basin, but we will be monitoring for any developments!
(Visible satellite image 6/10/10 at 8:15 AM EDT)

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