The same tropical wave we've been monitoring for a few weeks as it has tracked from western Africa through the Atlantic into the Caribbean is now showing good signs of organization, as Zach mentioned in yesterday's blog entry. There is a high probability of this system becoming a tropical depression over the weekend as it tracks toward the Yucatan Peninsula, and it may strengthen into our first Tropical Storm Alex into next week. An Air Force "hurricane hunter" airplane is scheduled to fly to the disturbance in the Caribbean this afternoon to see if the low pressure center is strong and organized enough to be classified as a depression. Upper-level winds have been losing shear, which will provide a better environment for storm organization. The latest model forecast tracks show this low tracking in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula then into the Gulf of Mexico.
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