Sunday, August 29, 2010

Earl Update Sunday 5:15 PM

Earl is now a strong category one hurricane with sustained winds of 85 mph. Earl's forward movement has slowed down to 14 mph. Over the next three days, it should continue its northwest track, then turn northward. The key to this forecast will be the timing of a front out west which should deflect Earl back to sea on Friday.

Right now, I think that the high pressure overhead will affect Earl's path a little more than what the computers dictate. Earl will continue to slow down as it strengthens to a category three hurricane by tomorrow or Tuesday. In addition, I think the computer forecasts are too aggressive with Friday's front. For these reasons, I tend to agree most with the GEM computer forecast, which brings Earl a little closer to the coast than the other models (indicated by the purple line below).

If the GEM forecast verifies, then Earl would briefly clip the Outer Banks and Virginia Beach late Thursday into early Friday. I want to emphasize that nothing is etched in stone right now. This is a day-to-day situation, so there will be updates to this path!

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