Thursday, January 20, 2011

Update On Snow Potential

The system that will move through the area overnight won't result in much snow at all for central Virginia, and if you sleep in, you'll likely miss it. The lift associated with the upper trough will weaken and accelerate as it moves over Virginia, giving us very little time to generate a good snow producing atmosphere. Throw in temperatures at the surface that will be a little above freezing, and you can plan on a very uneventful Friday. It will, however, be windy and cold for the remainder of the day, setting us up for a very cold weekend. The scenario next week continues to look promising for wintry weather, and the last few model runs have trended colder, making snow the predominant mode of precip. Our chance(s) for precipitation will depend on the timing and position of several upper-level disturbances embedded in west-southwesterly mid-level flow. Here's a snapshot of the GFS solution early next week showing two distinct upper-level waves over the Texas Panhandle and northern Idaho.

The evolution of these waves continues to change, which will change the timing and amount of precipitation we see. One thing that has been pretty consistent through all of the models has been the strength of cold high pressure that will move into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. While it doesn't appear like we'll see a major snowstorm, we could end up with several different episodes of winter weather next week. We'll continue to update you here and on CBS 6.

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