Thursday, February 3, 2011

A Look Ahead To Next Week's Storm

The computer data has been very consistent with a storm system approaching our area next Thursday (Feb 10th). However, the data is still inconsistent with the track of the low. Here are three different forecasts at 7 AM Thursday (ECMWF, CMC, GFS). The thick white line is a very crude forecast of the rain/snow line (rain is south of the line, snow is north). You can spot the low, which is indicated by a closed circle. The ECMWF low is right off the North Carolina coast, which would be more conducive to snow, where the CMC is farther north and west, which would bring more rain.

At 7 PM Thursday, all forecasts pull this low up the coast. ECMWF is a little farther out to sea, otherwise, the forecasts are in pretty good agreement. I think this is the first time this winter that the models actually show a similar scenario on a 7 day forecast!

Now, before you go out and buy a sled and snow shovel, you should realize that this track could easily shift farther west. In fact, the pattern does not look conducive for a major East Coast snow storm. The ridge, or Greenland block, is nonexistent. The blue/purple blob on the map below actually shows the opposite - a trough over Greenland.

Over the next couple days, we will probably see small shifts in the timing of this system. However, we could see some large shifts in its track, which would have a major impact on our forecast. This is something we will continue to watch. You can expect more updates in the coming days!

1 comment:

Essie said...

would it be possible to get this in English?