Monday, February 7, 2011
Snow Chances Look Slim
Our chance of seeing snow early Thursday isn't completely gone, but the odds of more than an inch are slim to none. The NAO has become positive, meaning that there is an absence of a North Atlantic blocking pattern. When we have a blocking pattern, the jet stream will dip south sharply across the eastern U.S. and then turn northward up the east coast. This pattern allows systems to intensify and ride along the coast (nor'easters). Without a block this Thursday, the flow across the Mid-Atlantic will be very fast and very west to east, not allowing the development of a coastal low. Any hope we have for snow is tied to the upper-level low, which is only moderate in strength. Based on the last few data suites that have been very consistent, we'll likely only see a brief period of light snow early Thursday morning. One thing that will be interesting to watch, is the potential development of a coastal low late Friday. This scenario is pretty unlikely, but the medium range models continue to hint at such development. A similar low developed a couple of weeks ago, dumping 4-6" of snow on the OBX. We'll keep you updated on both of these systems.