Friday, March 25, 2011

Friday Morning Update on Weekend Winter Weather

Here is the latest data as of Friday morning on the rain and winter mix expected this weekend in central Virginia. This data will likely change some over the next model runs today and tomorrow.

Overnight Friday into pre-sunrise Saturday, a weak upper wave currently tracking through the Midwest and Great Lakes will pass overhead and could produce some rain showers that may also have a few sleet or wet snowflakes mixed in.

However, temperatures at and near the ground will be above freezing in the mid to upper 30s and low 40s when this precipitation falls, so nothing will stick and there will not be icy patches Saturday morning. The light rain and mix will exit south before sunrise Saturday.

The rest of Saturday looks mostly cloudy but dry, so if you have outdoor plans during the day, you should be good to go!

Rain will begin moving back into the Commonwealth late Saturday night, and by Sunday morning, there should be a wintry mix of precipitation occurring in the area. On the maps to follow, green is rain, pink is a mix (snow, sleet, rain), and blues/whites are snow:

Sunday does look like it will be a cold washout day with a winter mix likely.

However, surface temperatures look like they will remain above freezing and hinder much, if any, accumulation or ice development during the day Sunday.

As colder air aloft is pulled southward into the Commonwealth Sunday night, a changeover to all snow may occur from north to south. Yet with surface temperatures still above freezing, accumulation may only occur on the grass and elevated objects.

Precipitation should quickly taper off after Midnight:

The snow map below should be taken lightly as it will likely change. Also, I think this represents how much snow may fall while it's mixing in with the rain, but not this much snow will literally "accumulate" on the ground because the surface temperature will remain above freezing Sunday and Sunday evening. We shouldn't fall below freezing until after the precipitation is done shortly after Midnight early Monday morning.

There should be wetness on the pavement Monday morning, and with temperatures by then falling to and below freezing, we could certainly develop icy patches on pavement Monday morning.
Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm!

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