Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Our Potential for Snow: Part 2

The possibilities for what happens next week still range from sunny and mild to a heavy snow, with one medium range model staying bullish on developing a Nor'easter for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. I'm big on consistency when it comes to longer term forecasting, but each model seems consistent in its own way. The GFS continues to show nothing, while the Euro is going gangbusters. The Euro is many times the big winner in medium range solutions, but I've seen it be consistently wrong on a system before. So with a good measure of cautiousness, and a heck of a lot of optimism, I'll put forth my expectations for next week based only on what the Euro is showing. After all, what's the fun of blogging about a non-event? Yesterday I mentioned the possibility of a big snow, citing the pattern change the Euro was depicting. There has been a change between yesterday's model run, and the runs from last night and this morning. That change?...colder and snowier to put it succinctly. The 500 mb low is slower and farther south and the surface low develops a little farther offshore. The overall amount (QPF) of moisture has increased, and more of that moisture falls into an air mass supportive of snow. So for you snow lovers, it continues to look better and better for a decent snow in the Jan 3-4 time frame. The next run of the Euro will begin a little after midnight. Check back here for my analysis. -Zach

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