Monday, December 5, 2011

Rain/Snow Mix Possible Early Thursday

This definitely won't be one to write home about, but enough cold air could arrive in central and western Virginia early enough Thursday morning to change rain to snow or a rain/snow mix before ending. While it looks like a good bet for snow across northern and western Virginia, our chances of seeing anything in the metro are much lower. Above is one model depiction of accumulated snowfall. I agree with the totals across northern and western Virginia, but surface temperatures will be far too warm (37-42 degrees) across central sections for the snow to stick. For reference, the pinks are a trace to 2", cyan 2-3", yellow 3-4", and on up. At least we have a chance to see a little wet snow if nothing else. The forecast atmospheric temperature profile (sounding) in the metro area Thursday around sunrise is favorable for snow to fall while in the process of melting, if there is still rain falling at that time. There's a good chance most, if not all ,of the rain will move northeast of the area by sunrise Thursday, so most of us will miss seeing whatever happens. I'll have another update on this tomorrow. Have a great Tuesday! ZD

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