Update on Snow Chances for the Weekend

So this is what we've been reduced to. The winter of 2011-2012 has been so miserably unfulfilling to snow lovers, that the mere mention of the possibility of seeing a few flakes gets us all giddy. Yes, I said "us". I'm a big fan of Virginia's varied weather with four solid seasons, and a trace of snow just doesn't cut it for me. Perhaps I'm spoiled from the past two winters, but whether you like the cold weather or not, it's just not winter without one good snow. I saw this type of winter coming with a La Nina in full swing ala 2006, but banked on one decent storm this season when I made my winter weather forecast. And I'm still banking on one, it just won't be this weekend. The type of system that will affect the area this weekend is a clipper. It moves quickly, is moisture starved, and rarely produces much of an accumulation around here. Computer models tend to under forecast precipitation in this type of scenario, so I'm putting more weight in the pattern than in what the model actually shows for precip. Even so, much of what develops and falls will evaporate in the very dry air that will be in place. I'm still looking forward to seeing even the lightest of what Mother Nature throws our way. I'll have another update tomorrow. -Zach

Slick spots devloping in western Virginia this morning

As rain expands northeast into the higher terrain of western Virginia this morning, some slick spots are developing while temperatures are below freezing. This Winter Weather Advisory lasts until 10 AM for the purple highlighted areas on the map:

Once temperatures rise above freezing late morning, the hazardous traveling conditions will dwindle. However, heavy rain will overspread all of the Commonwealth mid-day through this evening, making driving hazardous as heavy rain reduces visibilities and creates a hydroplaning risk.
Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.

Tracking the Potential for Snow this Weekend

The pattern for the upcoming weekend continues to look interesting, and several models are now agreeing on bringing some light snow into the area Sunday morning. The nor'easter the GFS was trying to blow up over the area on Monday is gone in the medium range solution, but both the GFS and ECMWF (Euro) are showing a shortwave clipper swinging through the region after very cold air has settled into the state. The GFS has actual precipitation (snow) depicted, while the Euro is dry with generally the same upper-level pattern. Based on the PVA that should be present ahead of the clipper that the Euro is showing, snow would likely be generated in the same manner as the GFS solution. The NAM only goes to 84 hours from the current time, so we can't see what it says for Sunday, but what it does show is in agreement with a short wave affecting the region by Sunday. The amount of snow should be on the light side, but the surface temps will be plenty cold enough for whatever falls to stick. This scenario is still about 4.5 days out, so things will change, but it's the only decent chance I see for us in the next week. I'll have another update tomorrow. -Zach